Galaxy lowers Bitcoin's year-end target to $120,000, citing whale sell-offs, AI competition, and gold influence

Due to whale sell-offs, ETF absorption of supply, and market demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and gold, Galaxy Digital has lowered its Bitcoin year-end target for 2025 from $185,000 to $120,000.

Galaxy’s analysts state that Bitcoin is currently in a “mature era,” with its upward momentum slowing, market liquidity gradually diminishing, and long-term holders’ allocations leading to fragile market sentiment. Additionally, capital flows are shifting toward other hot investment sectors like AI and gold, further constraining Bitcoin’s performance. Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, believing that once market sentiment recovers, a new upward trend could emerge.

Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Year-End Target

2025 Year-End Target Reduced from $185,000 to $120,000

As Bitcoin’s price drops below $100,000, Galaxy Digital has adjusted its 2025 price forecast, lowering the target from $185,000 to $120,000. Galaxy Digital’s research head, Alex Thorn, states that although Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain solid, this year’s market has been dominated by whale allocations, ETF-driven absorption, and declining retail participation. This trend has slowed Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Thorn notes, “If Bitcoin can hold above $100,000, then the bull market structure of the past three years remains intact, even if future gains may be slower.” However, recent market volatility indicates that Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure and could face more uncertainty in the short term.

2025 Market Corrections and Adjustments

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 this week, experiencing one of the most significant corrections in nearly a year. Data shows that over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated as Bitcoin’s price dropped from about $107,000 to $99,000. Despite this, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $103,400, reflecting some market recovery.

However, analysts highlight that the market remains “fragile,” with ETF fund outflows, diminishing liquidity, and long-term holder distributions continuing to negatively impact market sentiment. Galaxy Digital emphasizes that approximately 470,000 BTC (around $50 billion) have recently flowed out of long-term wallets, signaling increased institutionalization of Bitcoin supply, but also presenting ongoing technical resistance to price gains.

Capital Flows and Bitcoin’s Market Performance

AI and Gold Draw Capital Inflows

Galaxy Digital further notes that Bitcoin’s performance this year has been influenced by other hot investment sectors, especially AI and gold. The development of AI technology and the rise of large-scale corporations have attracted record capital inflows, with investors chasing opportunities in data center industries. Meanwhile, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged, especially amid increasing global geopolitical uncertainties—funds that might otherwise have flowed into Bitcoin.

Thorn comments that in a capital-rich environment, “attention is limited.” For 2025, Bitcoin is not considered a “hot trade,” particularly with AI and the so-called “Big Tech” stocks performing well, which has diverted market focus away from Bitcoin.

Leverage Liquidation Event on October 10

On October 10, the market experienced a leverage liquidation event, leading to a 35% reduction in open interest in the crypto futures market. This event further dampened investor confidence and heightened market fear. Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research, states, “Fear-driven market sentiment and strong long-term holder sell-offs have exacerbated Bitcoin’s weakness.” He believes Bitcoin is at a “critical turning point,” but expects that as risk appetite recovers, selling pressure will ease, and the market could see a bullish reversal.

Future Price Trends and Market Outlook for Bitcoin

If Support at $100,000 Fails, Price Could Drop to $72,000

According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, if Bitcoin cannot hold the $100,000 support level, its price could fall to around $72,000 within the next one to two months. Julio Moreno, the firm’s head of research, points out that recent liquidations, ETF outflows, and shrinking spot demand could push Bitcoin’s price lower. Overall, market sentiment remains bearish, with significant short-term correction risks.

However, most analysts believe Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains “structurally solid.” As institutional investors continue to enter and the crypto market matures, Bitcoin could undergo a phase of adjustment before entering a new growth cycle.

Institutional Capital and Bitcoin’s Institutionalization

As Bitcoin’s market becomes more “institutionalized,” long-term holder behavior may become more common. Institutions are absorbing Bitcoin supply through exchanges, ETFs, and other channels, reducing volatility and promoting more stable price performance. However, this also means that Bitcoin’s upward potential will increasingly depend on institutional capital flows and market sentiment shifts.

Galaxy Digital asserts that despite potential short-term price adjustments, Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains healthy, especially as global financial markets pay more attention to crypto assets. As market sentiment gradually recovers, Bitcoin still has the potential to continue climbing.

Conclusion

Despite significant volatility and corrections in the 2025 Bitcoin market, Galaxy Digital’s analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential. The “mature” phase suggests slower short-term gains, but with ongoing market recovery and sustained institutional inflows, Bitcoin could break new highs. Investors should monitor market sentiment and capital flows, especially given the competition from AI and gold sectors that are attracting capital.

As the global crypto market matures, Bitcoin’s future price trajectory remains uncertain. However, based on its unique value and functions, Bitcoin continues to be a noteworthy asset for long-term consideration.