Winning the championship with Faker, he earned nearly $3 million.

During the League of Legends S15 Finals, “fengdubiying” started with a stake of $30,000 and ultimately made over $2.9 million in total profit on Polymarket, becoming a new legend in the prediction market. (Background: Preview of the League of Legends S15 Championship Prediction Market: T1 with a 3:1 high probability to narrowly beat KT, Faker and Oner playing key roles) (Additional context: From Trump, CZ to Wall Street, why is everyone betting on “prediction markets”?) The League of Legends S15 World Championship has concluded, and Faker once again stood on the highest podium, claiming his sixth championship and continuing his legendary story. In the crypto world, with the rise of prediction markets, players enjoy esports events while participating through prediction markets. Among many crypto players involved in prediction markets, an ID called “fengdubiying” (meaning “bet and win every time”) has become a new legend. In the finals prediction between T1 and KT, he boldly wagered about $1.58 million on T1 to win, ultimately earning about $820,000 in profit. Starting from the Swiss rounds of S15 with a $30,000 position, by the end of the finals, his total profit on Polymarket exceeded $2.9 million. Such an incredible record has caught the attention of foreigners. How did he do it? What prompted him to become active on Polymarket? According to him, what are the current issues in Polymarket and the prediction market sector, and what are his future outlooks? “fengdubiying” shared his legendary journey and insights in an interview with Rhythm BlockBeats. Betting on his own knowledge “I believe in what I am confident about, so I bet on it. This has been my strategy since I entered the crypto space.” Believing in his own judgment and placing large bets on high-confidence predictions is his key to success. During Solana’s meme market last year, he achieved a single-coin A8 profit on moodeng. The strategy sounds simple, but it requires a strong heart and confidence. Behind every glorious victory, there are moments of disappointment. As he wrote on X, his address on Hyperliquid peaked with a profit of $9 million, avoiding the October 11 crash and earning $2.8 million from short positions. However, subsequent liquidity collapses caused him to lose streaks, giving back his profits. But, as the saying goes, “A loss may be a gain in disguise.” His losses in the futures market led to a profitable bet on Bitcoin dropping below $105,000 on Polymarket. Although modest—growing from $13,000 to $30,000—this marked the beginning of his legendary journey on Polymarket. Previously, when Trump was elected U.S. President, he had already learned about Polymarket and prediction markets. However, he wasn’t very interested in political predictions and felt uncertain, so he chose not to participate. To explore new sectors and for potential airdrops, he initially focused on crypto-related predictions. Then, fate arrived—the League of Legends S15 World Championship. Decisive and confident, Faker, the hero on Polymarket, is undoubtedly the king of League of Legends. On Polymarket, “fengdubiying” crowned himself with his strong mindset. In this legendary journey, only Chovy once posed a threat. During KT’s semi-final against Gen.G, he bet over $400,000 on Gen.G, but Chovy’s performance in the match left him speechless. When Gen.G fell behind 1:2, he reluctantly and decisively closed his bet on Gen.G to win and switched to betting on KT. This move only cost him $20,000. When asked about his gaming rank, he humorously replied: “I haven’t played in a long time. I used to reach Diamond in school, but as I got older, I can’t play as much. Not everyone who understands football is good at playing it.” Although he no longer wields a mouse rushing into Summoner’s Rift like in his student days, he never misses the annual S tournament and always makes predictions with a good success rate. When asked if he trades based on match momentum swings—buying low and selling high—he said he doesn’t: “After entering the knockout stage, the skill gap between teams is small, and situations change rapidly. If a team is in poor form and already behind, they might be swept away in one wave. At that point, there’s no arbitrage opportunity. Betting on Polymarket and opening a position in contracts are similar—nothing is guaranteed to win. It’s just about being on the higher probability side.” Differences between prediction markets and traditional entertainment In fengdubiying’s view, prediction markets are fundamentally different from traditional entertainment: “The difference is huge. It’s like baccarat versus Texas Hold’em. Baccarat is against the house; poker is between players. In prediction markets, each prediction is a battle between players, relying on one’s knowledge and strategy. If you’re playing against the house, you’re destined to lose.” He believes prediction markets are a variant of trading markets, with limit and market orders, similar to contract markets, charging some fees. Regarding the scope of topics, he also sees a big difference from traditional betting: prediction markets cover a wide range of subjects, including traditional sports like football, basketball, esports, as well as political and weather forecasts. Additionally, prediction markets are built on smart contracts, offering on-chain security and convenience. Although both prediction markets and traditional entertainment involve “betting on something,” he considers prediction markets a completely new track that cannot be directly compared. Current issues in prediction markets Regarding liquidity, fengdubiying believes there is much room for improvement: “This year, I shifted to the Bitcoin futures market because other sectors couldn’t accommodate my position size. If a market or sector lacks sufficient liquidity, I end up giving money away. Once a player reaches a certain capital scale, they will clearly feel the limitations of liquidity in various markets and will only participate where they can handle the volume.” He compares the current situation of Polymarket to when meme markets first emerged—low liquidity. Besides major global sports events and political/economic topics, many other subjects have low liquidity, making it less attractive for whales, as moving thousands or tens of thousands of dollars is boring for them. He experienced this firsthand during his S bets, noting the difficulty of doing swing trades with insufficient depth: “If you bet large positions, trying to buy high and sell low, or set stop-loss and take-profit, becomes difficult. Betting $200,000–$300,000…”