Morgan Stanley: 2026'da doların zayıflaması bekleniyor ancak Federal Rezerv (FED) faiz artırma riski bu görüşü sarsabilir.

Golden Finance reported that a currency strategist team at JPMorgan led by Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya had predicted that the dollar would strengthen after Trump took office this year. However, as the dollar performed its worst in 50 years in the first half of the year, the team had to quickly adjust its view. The team turned negative on the dollar in March and has maintained this position to this day. Strategists now expect the dollar to decline by about 3% before the middle of 2026, and then stabilize. However, analysts point out that several key factors complicate the bank's bearish view. First, despite recent rate cuts by the Federal Rezerv (FED), U.S. interest rates remain higher than those of many other global Merkez Bankası. They stated that this makes global investors more inclined to park their funds in the U.S. and limits the appeal of diversifying investments outside U.S. assets. More broadly, the risk that JPMorgan is concerned about is that a rebound in the U.S. labor market or growth expectations could lead traders not only to rule out the possibility of rate cuts next year but also to increasingly raise bets on potential rate hikes. “Net bearish on the dollar for 2026, although neither the magnitude nor breadth is as significant as in 2025,” Chandan and colleagues wrote.