Ark Invest: Liquidity is recovering, which may lay the foundation for a market rebound by the end of the year.

According to a report by Jinse Finance, on November 27, Ark Invest stated that liquidity in the U.S. market has begun to recover after hitting a multi-year low of $5.56 trillion on October 30. A six-week government shutdown resulted in a loss of $621 billion in liquidity, but with the government reopening, $70 billion has already flowed back into the market. It is expected that another $300 billion will return in the next 5-6 weeks as the Treasury's general account normalizes. The improvement in the liquidity environment coincides with the Fed's shift to a dovish stance. New York Fed President John Williams, California Governor Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Daly have all expressed support for interest rate cuts, which has raised the market's implied probability of a near-term rate cut to around 90%. Ark Invest believes that as liquidity is restored, Quantitative Tightening (QT) will end on December 1, and monetary policy will shift to a supportive stance. We believe the market is forming conditions that could potentially reverse the recent downtrend.