Bitunix Analyst: ADP Employment Disappoints and Capital Divergence Intensifies, Making BTC 93k the Key Short-Term Bull-Bear Watershed

BlockBeats News, December 4—Latest data shows that in November, the US “ADP Nonfarm” employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, significantly weaker than market expectations, indicating an accelerated cooling of the labor market. This report is an important reference for the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision, and the weakening employment adds further uncertainty to potential policy shifts. After the data release, safe-haven assets strengthened, gold prices rebounded to the $4,220 level, while the crypto market saw expanded range-bound volatility. From a macro perspective, the employment decline primarily came from small and micro enterprises, with companies having fewer than 50 employees shedding 120,000 jobs in a single month—the largest drop since March 2023—reflecting simultaneous pressure on end demand and the financing environment. Annual wage growth fell to 4.4%, indicating marginal easing of inflationary pressure. The interest rate futures market has raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to nearly 90%. Short-term rate expectations have turned dovish, the US Dollar Index has become more volatile, and risk assets are entering a repricing phase.

In the crypto market, there is a clear divergence in ETF capital flows: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $14.9 million in a single day, while ETH had a net inflow of $140.2 million, indicating capital rotation from BTC to the Ethereum ecosystem. In the past 24 hours of liquidation data, BTC long positions were liquidated for $45.07 million, and shorts for $50.73 million; ETH longs for $26.38 million, and shorts for $103.37 million, with a notably higher liquidation of ETH short positions, meaning short-term volatility remains high. BTC still needs to be observed to see if it can hold above $93,000; if it fails, $90,500 will become a key short-term support zone.

According to Bitunix analysts, against the backdrop of weakening employment and rising expectations of rate cuts, the market is entering a “macro pivot expectation + internal crypto capital rotation” composite phase. ETF capital flows and liquidation structures show that risk appetite is diverging rather than expanding in unison, and the market remains in a structurally volatile state in the short term. Moving forward, attention should be paid to whether interest rate expectations are revised further downward, and whether capital continues to flow from Bitcoin to high-beta assets, as this will determine the risk level and trend slope of the next market phase.