Bitcoin short-term bear turns bull, will history repeat itself? | Special analysis

null

Odaily Exclusive Market Analyst Conaldo, a Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University in the United States, has been focused on US stock quantitative trading since college, gradually expanding into digital assets such as Bitcoin. He has developed a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses keen data insights into market volatility; and is committed to deepening expertise in professional trading, pursuing steady returns. He will delve into weekly updates on BTC technicals, macroeconomic factors, capital flows, etc., review and showcase practical strategies, and preview major upcoming events for reference.

Weekly Market Summary:

• Strategy Execution (Short-term): Last week, trading strictly followed the established strategy, completing one short-term operation with (1x leverage), resulting in a loss of -1.07%. (See Chart 1)

• Core Short-term View Validation: The core view proposed last week has been precisely validated by the market. Over the past week, the coin price broke through an important resistance zone of $94,500–$95,000, currently confirming its validity. The price reached a high of $97,963, which is less than 0.5% away from the lower boundary of the pressure zone at $97,500, further confirming our key level analysis.

• Market Outlook for the Coming Weeks: Will Bitcoin turn from a bear to a bull market? Is the current movement a rebound or a reversal? The 21-week moving average may become the market’s key dividing line between bulls and bears. (Detailed explanation in Chart 4)

Below, we will review the market forecast, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.

I. Last Week’s Bitcoin Market Review: (01.12–01.18)

1. Short-term Operation Review Last Week: As shown in (Chart 1)

We strictly followed our self-constructed spread trading model and momentum quantification model signals, combined with market trend predictions, to complete one short-term trade, which resulted in a 1.07% loss.

Details and review of the trade are as follows:

Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Spread Trading Model)

Chart 1

① Trade Summary: (No leverage)

② Short-term Trade Review:

• First Trade (Loss of 1.07%): The operation plan A (resistance zone short) was executed: when the price rose to the key resistance zone of $94,500–$95,000 and showed resistance signals, and the spread trading model triggered a top signal (green dot), confirming the decision. We then established a 30% short position at $95,460; however, the market deviated from expectations, finding support near $94,500 and turning upward. When the momentum and spread models triggered bottom signals again, we exited with a stop loss at $96,493. Although this trade resulted in a loss, we strictly adhered to the discipline of “trade upon signal trigger, prioritize risk control,” practicing consistency.

2. Last Week’s Market Trend Forecast and Strategy Review:

① Last week, it was clearly stated: maintain oscillation within $84,000–$94,500, focusing on the direction choice and validity at both ends of the range.

② Key level review: Resistance at $94,500–$95,000, significant resistance near $97,500–$99,500; support at $89,500–$91,000.

③ Strategy review:

• Mid-term strategy: If the price successfully breaks through and stabilizes above $94,500, clear all mid-term positions (shorts) and hold in cash, observing further developments.

• Short-term strategy: If the price remains oscillating within $84,000–$94,500, execute according to Plan A:

• Entry: When rebounding to $94,500–$95,000 and combined with model top signals, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: Initial stop loss for shorts set around 1.5% above the cost price (i.e., 1.015× cost).

• Exit: When the price dips near key support levels and signals are triggered, gradually close positions to realize profits.

II. Technical Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price Structure: Multi-model and Multi-dimensional Comprehensive Assessment

Combining market operation data, the author uses a self-developed trading system, analyzing Bitcoin’s trend structure from multiple models and dimensions.

Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Sentiment Quantification Model)

Chart 2

1. As shown in (Chart 2), from weekly analysis:

• Momentum Quantification Model: Technical indicators show continuation of previous patterns, with the momentum line gradually approaching, and negative energy bars shrinking. However, current signals do not confirm a trend reversal to bearish.

The momentum model indicates: Bitcoin’s downward momentum index: High

• Sentiment Quantification Model: Blue sentiment line at 57.17, with zero strength; yellow sentiment line at 25.28, zero strength; peak value is 0.

Sentiment model indicates: Price pressure and support index: Neutral

• Digital Monitoring Model: The price has broken the bullish/bearish dividing line (yellow/blue lines) for 9 weeks. Last week, bulls again challenged this line, closing near below it.

Digital monitoring signals: No digital signals indicating tops or bottoms; weekly candle closed as a moderate positive (about +2.92%).

These data suggest: Bitcoin’s weekly bearish trend, with potential risk of oscillation and correction.

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Sentiment Quantification Model)

Chart 3

2. As shown in (Chart 3), from daily analysis:

• Momentum Quantification Model: Last week showed a “rise then suppression” pattern. In the first half, the price accelerated upward, momentum line above zero, positive energy bars expanded rapidly; in the second half, energy bars contracted sharply, momentum line converged and slowly approached zero.

The daily momentum model indicates: Bullish momentum weakening, watch for zero line crossing.

• Sentiment Quantification Model: After last Sunday’s close, blue sentiment line at 38, zero strength; yellow at 76, zero strength.

Sentiment model indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral

These data suggest: The daily rebound continues, market shows initial bullish signs, but validity needs confirmation. Focus on the battle between bulls and bears around the zero line.

III. Market Forecast for This Week: (01.19–01.25)

1. Core View: Focus on gains and losses in the $94,500–$95,000 zone.

• Valid resistance: If the price rebounds to this zone and confirms resistance, expect oscillation within $84,000–$94,500, with the first target at $89,500–$91,000.

• Valid support: If the price can firmly hold this zone, a rebound is possible, but limited in height.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First resistance: $94,500–$95,000 (upper edge of previous range)

• Second resistance: $97,500–$99,500 (mid-range of previous oscillation)

• Important resistance: around $10,200 (near 21-week MA)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First support: $89,500–$91,000 (previous heavy trading zone)

• Second support: $86,000–$86,500 (important previous support)

• Critical support: around $84,000 (lower edge of previous range)

IV. Trading Strategy for This Week (Exclude Unexpected News Impact): (01.19–01.25)

1. Mid-term strategy: Hold cash, expect possible oscillation or correction, observe market.

2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points based on support/resistance levels, seek spread trading opportunities, using 30-minute cycle.

3. Focus on gains/losses around $94,500–$95,000. To adapt dynamically to market changes and real-time signals, prepare two plans A and B:

• Plan A: If the price stabilizes above $94,500–$95,000:

• Entry: When the price breaks above this zone and shows stabilization signals, combined with model bottom signals, establish a 30% long position.

• Risk control: Initial stop loss around 1.5% below cost (i.e., 0.985× cost).

• Exit: When the price approaches key resistance and signals are triggered, gradually close to realize profits.

• Plan B: If the price effectively breaks below $94,500–$95,000:

• Entry: When the price rebounds but confirms breakdown, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: Initial stop loss around 1.5% above cost (i.e., 1.015× cost).

• Exit: When the price drops near $86,500 and signals are triggered, gradually close to lock in profits.

Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: Comparative analysis of historical market structures (2021.11 vs. 2025.10)

Chart 4

Note: In the above chart, 21-week MA (white), 84-week MA (green)

V. How Will History Repeat? Comparing Two Cycles of Weekly Adjustments and Their Insights:

In summary, we can extract the following key lessons:

1. The current weekly trend is bearish, limiting the space for daily rebounds.

2. Whether Bitcoin can effectively break and hold above the 21-week MA in the coming weeks will be a market focus. If the price rebounds to this MA but fails to break through effectively, the market may revisit historical correction patterns, possibly even breaking below $80,000.

3. Whether the weekly MACD shows signs of stabilization and whether the momentum line crosses above zero will be critical indicators for trend reversal.

VI. Special Reminders:

1. When opening positions: immediately set initial stop-loss levels.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to breakeven (cost price).

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuously monitor: for every additional 1% profit, move stop-loss by 1% to protect gains and lock profits.

Financial markets are highly volatile; all analysis and trading strategies should be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis, for personal trading logs only, and do not constitute investment advice or operational guidance. Market risks are inherent; invest cautiously. DYOR.