Title: Truth Comes Later
Author: Thejaswini M A
Source:
Reprint: Mars Finance
Every time prediction markets become controversial, we keep circling around one question but never truly face it:
Are prediction markets really about the truth?
It's not about accuracy, practicality, or whether they outperform polls, journalists, or social media trends. It’s about the truth itself.
Prediction markets price events that have not yet occurred. They are not reporting facts but allocating probabilities to those still open, uncertain, and unknowable futures. At some point, we started treating these probabilities as a form of truth.
For most of the past year, prediction markets have been immersed in their victory parade.
They have beaten polls, cable news, and holders of PhDs, and