AxelAdlerJr

STH discount compressed from -22% to -4% in two months. Price is now testing STH cost basis. 35K BTC in profit hit exchanges yesterday. Profit vs loss: 7.5:1.
New ☕ Adler AM 👇

STH vs LTH cost basis - who's underwater right now. % Supply in Profit/Loss, sell pressure from underwater holders.
On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans | Part 4 👇

Guys, quick update - I’ve upgraded the dashboard to v2.1. Removed outdated models and added new ones.
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$100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance
☕️Morning Brief #83 👇

Futures Bulls Are Back: Positioning Index Above 3 for the First Time Since October
Adler AM ☕️👇

Realized P/L Momentum Index tracks when realized profit and loss pressure meaningfully shifts.
SQL + full methodology included - 75% historical win rate 👇

We have to acknowledge that Bitcoin has looked excellent since the beginning of the year.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility has compressed to 23% - a level that statistically rarely persists for long. Historically, such compression regimes tend to end with sharp range expansion.
Realized Volatility 23.6%: Compression Has Reached a Critical Threshold
Morning Brief ☕️👇

Gold hits a new record above $4,593/oz as demand for safe havens surges. Markets are reacting to concerns over Fed independence, rising geopolitical risks around Iran and growing expectations of US rate cuts. Focus now shifts to this week’s US inflation data.

Bears are once again putting pressure on price in the futures market.

STH SOPR dropped to 0.98 - the lowest since January 1. Short-term holders have been selling at a loss for three months straight, with Z-Score at -0.58 confirming we're in a redistribution phase.
Are we near exhaustion, or is there more pain ahead?
☕️Adler AM 👇

Weekly ML Snapshot #002
Current Market Regime Score = -3.0 (🟠 Elevated Risk). Elevated Risk indicates an unfavorable environment: more frequent corrections, chop, and false impulses.

Since October last year, 64,100 BTC have been withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs. At the same time, the $100K level remains a breakeven zone for large players. Holding a losing position throughout an entire bear cycle is economically irrational - Grayscale proved this in the previous cycle.
So what narrative actually justifies buying at $100K right now?
The full on-chain breakdown is available in this Sunday’s Bitcoin Deep Research, together with the latest Adler Strategy update. 👇

After BTC recovered from $80K to $90K, UTxO Loss Supply declined from 7.5M to 6.1M BTC.
It is important to understand: this does not mean new capital entered the market and bought the bottom. The decline in Loss Supply here is a mark-to-market effect, not the result of on-chain activity. Each UTxO has a creation price.
When the market price rises above that level, the UTxO is automatically reclassified from Loss to Profit - without a single on-chain transaction.
In other words, ~1.4M BTC simply moved out of loss on paper due to the price increase.

New whales have an entry price around $99K. If price reaches that level, they are likely to dump the market to exit at breakeven. Reminder: these are whales, not retail.

Since the start of the ETF era, drawdowns have been noticeably shallower.

At the $79K level, things will get heated - a real stress test for diamond hands.

Bitcoin Correction −33% vs −70% Historical: Early Bear Stage.
This brief examines the depth of the current correction in the context of historical bear market drawdowns and evaluates price position relative to the CVDD model.
☕️Adler AM 👇

On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans | Part 3
SOPR: Profit/Loss as a Regime Switch
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