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Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bitcoin Lacks a Clear Direction as Consolidation Continues
Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating between $85,500 and $90,000 for nearly three weeks, indicating a state of market instability. On Friday, Bitcoin's price reached approximately $89,000.
If Bitcoin surpasses $90,000 and closes above it daily, the rally could extend toward the next resistance level at $94,253, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high in October at $126,199.
The daily RSI( indicator stands at 51, above the neutral 50 level, indicating a slowdown in bearish momentum. To ensure continued bullish momentum, the RSI must remain above the neutral level. Meanwhile, the MACD) indicator showed a bullish crossover on December 20, which remains valid, supporting a slight bullish outlook.
Daily chart of the BTC/USDT pair
However, if Bitcoin undergoes a correction, the decline could extend toward the minimum accumulation zone around $85,500.
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- The Bitcoin New Year Begins with Decreased Demand:
US-based Bitcoin-focused ETFs experienced outflows of $348 million on Wednesday, erasing the $355 million in inflows from the previous day. These ETFs have recorded outflows totaling $1.09 billion, continuing the withdrawal streak after selling $3.48 billion in November.
Additionally, this marks the fifth consecutive month of decline last year, with an annual inflow of $21.07 trillion.
Data on US Bitcoin ETFs. Source: Sosovalue
On the corporate front, Tether, a stablecoin issuer pegged to the US dollar, announced it had acquired 8,888 Bitcoin over the past three months. This move, along with acquisitions by Strategy, a company affiliated with Michael Saylor, and Metaplanet, increased their holdings to 672,497 Bitcoin and 35,102 Bitcoin respectively, reflecting rising corporate demand.
However, short-term volatility in Bitcoin's price has led to a decrease in retail investors' risk exposure in its derivatives market. CoinGlass data shows a decline in open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts to $54.62 billion on Thursday, down from $94.12 billion on October 7. Typically, a decrease in open interest indicates traders are either closing positions or reducing leverage, signaling a risk-averse sentiment.
Open Interest in Bitcoin Futures Contracts. Source: CoinGlass

- Corporate and whale demand outweighs outflows from exchange-traded funds.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to decline, as evidenced by seven consecutive days of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data shows net outflows of $19.29 million on Monday, in addition to $782 million of total outflows recorded last week. If institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to decrease, it could lead to increased selling pressure.
Bitcoin ETF data (BTC) in the United States. Source: Sosovalue
According to Arkham Intelligence’s blockchain analytics platform, BlackRock deposited more than 2,200 Bitcoin on Coinbase Prime. This reduction in the fund’s holdings by the largest provider of Bitcoin ETFs, based on assets under management, reflects a loss of confidence and may increase selling pressure.
BlackRock holdings data. Source: Arkham Intelligence.
On the corporate front, MicroStrategy acquired 1,229 Bitcoin last week, bringing its total holdings to 672,497 Bitcoin with an average price of $74,997. Additionally, MicroPlanet purchased 4,279 Bitcoin over the past three months, currently holding 35,102 Bitcoin with an average price of $104,679. This overall stability in corporate confidence in Bitcoin indicates a trend toward buying during price dips.
In a positive development, large wallet investors, known as whales, are withdrawing Bitcoin from trading platforms, indicating renewed demand. According to Lookonchain, two newly created wallets withdrew 2,201 Bitcoin from Binance, which may suggest market optimism for a rebound at the start of the new year.

- Blockchain data and Toncoin derivatives indicate an improvement in market sentiment.
Brief data from CryptoQuant suggest positive outlooks, as spot and futures markets for Toncoin show massive buy orders from major investors, a slowdown in the market, and dominance of buying activity. All these factors point to an improvement in trader sentiment, hinting at a potential rise in the coming days.
On the derivatives side, the buy-to-sell position ratio for Toncoin on the CoinGlass platform reached 1.14 on Thursday, approaching its highest level in a month. This ratio exceeding one indicates optimism in the market, with traders expecting the price of Toncoin to rise.
Chart of the buy-to-sell position ratio in the TON index. Source: Coinglass

- WLD Coin Price Expectations: WLD is trading within a descending wedge pattern:
The price of WLD has been trading within a bearish pattern (formed by connecting multiple peaks and troughs with two trendlines) for over a month. As of Thursday when this report was written, WLD's price rose to approximately $0.49.
If the WLD price breaks above the descending wedge and closes above it, the upward movement could extend toward the daily resistance level at $0.56. If the price closes above this level, it could rise further toward the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.63.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart indicates a level of 36, trending upward toward its neutral level at 50, suggesting a slowdown in bearish momentum. However, for the bullish momentum to continue, the RSI must break above the neutral level. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are converging, indicating a state of indecision among traders.
Daily chart of the WLD/USDT pair
On the other hand, if WLD experiences a correction, the decline could extend to its lowest level on December 18 at $0.47.

- The imitators and the broader context of the Treasury Department:
The growth of companies mimicking strategies continues, with more than 191 public companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury reserves, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
Many of these public companies follow a buy-and-hold strategy for stocks and bonds similar to Strategies, but mining companies like Marathon Digital (MARA) combine production with stock retention. Other companies, such as Metaplanet, have global appeal as an inflation hedge.
As with Strategy, the stock prices of these companies have fallen between 50% and 80% from their peak in 2025, and net asset value premiums are shrinking as Bitcoin's performance falls short of expectations. See the example in the chart below.
Stock prices of MARA, Metaplanet, and Twenty One Capital
A report from CryptoQuant indicated that Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital through PIPEs have experienced significant declines in stock value, with stock prices often trending toward their PIPE issuance levels.
The analyst concluded that the ongoing rise in Bitcoin's price is the only potential catalyst to prevent further declines in these stocks. Without it, many are expected to continue falling toward or below their private market prices.

- The strategy shows a weak net asset value premium:
The Net Asset Value (NAV) premium indicator (NAV) measures the market's valuation of the company relative to its Bitcoin holdings and other assets, excluding liabilities. The current net asset value premium is -18.12% (0.82x), meaning the market values MSTR at 82% of its Bitcoin holdings per share (excluding the value of other businesses).
This indicates that investors are currently unwilling to pay a premium for the Strategy company's leveraged Bitcoin exposure, as concerns about dilution, rising debt costs, and sideways Bitcoin performance affect sentiment — making it difficult for MSTR to raise low-cost capital for further Bitcoin accumulation without pressuring shareholders.
However, during strong market booms, this premium has often ranged from 1.5x to 2.5x, allowing the Strategy company to raise capital at a low cost and increase the Bitcoin price per share.

- Stock Market Performance and Challenges in 2025
The share price of "Strategic" (MSTR) on the weekly chart has sharply declined from its yearly high of $457.22 on July 14 to its lowest point at $155.61 on December 1, a decrease of over 63%. The stock is currently trading near $160, approaching its lowest annual level and below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $184.09.
Weekly MSTR Chart
There are several reasons behind this correction in MSTR's price.
The sharp rise in Bitcoin's price to a record high of $126,199 on October 6, followed by a decline below the annual opening level of $93,576, and its current trend toward the lowest annual level at $74,508, have resulted in a weak or slightly negative performance in 2025 as the year approaches its end. Since MSTR is leveraged as a debt-funded bet on Bitcoin, its share price fluctuates more than Bitcoin's price, leading to significant losses for investors despite their holdings remaining steady.
Weekly BTC/USDT Pair Chart
Additionally, "Strategic" primarily finances its Bitcoin accumulation through convertible bonds, preferred shares, and stock offerings in the market, rather than selling Bitcoin. As a result, a large portion of its old debt is inexpensive. However, new borrowing and preferred shares carry much higher costs, leading to increased interest payments and annual profits.
Furthermore, repeated issuance of shares dilutes current investors' stakes, making each share represent a smaller slice of the company and its Bitcoin holdings. Consequently, in a strong and volatile 2025, characterized by notable quarterly fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, this has become a problem for "Strategic." The company can no longer easily raise cheap capital, while rising financing costs and shareholder dilution put pressure on cash flows and negatively impact the stock price, even if Bitcoin's price does not decline sharply.
Potential exclusion risks from indices, such as those caused by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), could lead to the removal of Bitcoin-dominated companies (more than 50% of assets) from major stock indices, thus treating them more as investment tools than operational companies.
If the Strategic index is excluded, passive funds and ETFs tracking these indices will be forced to sell MSTR shares, resulting in outflows worth billions of dollars. Additionally, investors are likely to redirect their capital from highly volatile assets, such as leveraged Bitcoin alternatives like MSTR, toward more stable assets. This development could lead to decreased liquidity and institutional demand, potentially triggering a downward spiral in MSTR stock prices.

- Strategic and other Bitcoin treasury management companies are under pressure as market momentum slows:
Sharp rises and deep corrections in Bitcoin's price have led to stable or slightly negative performance in 2025, putting stress on corporate treasury models related to Bitcoin.
Strategic's stock has fallen more than 60% from its yearly high, resulting in a sharp decline in net asset value premiums.
Treasury companies that raised capital through private investments in public equities have experienced significant declines in their share values, as stock prices often revert to issuance levels.
Bitcoin bonds (BTC) issued by Strategies (MSTR) and other companies remain under pressure, as Bitcoin's volatile performance in 2025 — characterized by sharp gains and deep corrections — has led to stable or slightly declining annual returns. MSTR's stock price has fallen over 60% from its highs this year, while competing companies that raised capital through private investments in public equities (PIPE) have experienced similar declines, reaching their issuance levels.
Strategy: The Largest Institutional Owner of Bitcoin:
Michael Saylor's Strategy Company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is a US-based business intelligence (BI) and mobile software company that has treated Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset since August 2020.
As shown in the chart below, the company has accumulated 671,268 Bitcoins in reserves, valued at $60.04 billion, at an average price of $74,972 per Bitcoin. This makes it the largest Bitcoin reserve management company in the world, holding 3.19% of the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million.
Bitcoin Holdings Strategy Chart. Source: BiTBO
The company raises capital through convertible bonds, preferred shares, and market offerings to purchase Bitcoin, even during price declines.
In addition to these capital-raising methods, the company announced on November 30 the creation of a dedicated US dollar reserve, fully funded through the issuance of new common shares of MSTR in the (ATM) market.
The reserve explicitly aims to cover:
Cash distributions to Strategy's preferred stock classes (approximately $700 million annually).
Interest on its outstanding convertible bonds.
Short-term liquidity needs in case of tightening capital markets.
These reserves are managed separately from the company's Bitcoin reserves, making "Strategic" a dual-reserve entity for the first time. As of December 22, Strategy increased its US dollar reserves by $748 million to $2.19 billion, an amount sufficient to cover approximately $700 million of annual preferred stock dividends for over three years.$BTC