House

$TOTAL 3
This chart needs a ~10% move to get itself out of what I call a "danger area"
This index recently lost a 2 year trend that was considered the "bull market trend"
As we speak, it's turned to resistance
This is often the simplest, most effective signal of downside if bulls can't regain

Out of the last 6 months, 71% of days have seen more market selling than buying on BTC spot markets
$BTC is down -23% since

$XRP
We saw a nice 20% move last week that was quickly sold off
This was due to an overall "weak" move where little money took advantage of thin liquidity, without any chasing support
This $2.10 support has been respected for many months and is really the last chance to keep this impulse meaningful
At the same time, any moves up to $2.40s provide no meaningful structure shift. Above that and we can start getting excited.

GM from Puerto Rico

$XRP has risen 30% since Jan 1st and CVD tells an interesting story
This was not driven by aggressive market buying
Most exchanges are net negative on taker volume, which shows the difference between real demand and unique orderbook dynamics
Very thin ask liquidity allowed this move - I'll be keeping close eyes as this type of growth is not ideal unless bids start chasing and supporting

$XRP / $USOIL
This chart has been in a fierce downtrend for nearly 3 months
There is a clear trendline that's been holding it down
It's evident that this pullback is "different", so the question is how long it lasts and is a relief push due to print soon
All eyes are on that trend as once we see acceptance above, price will print the strongest upward push we have seen in months

$BTC returns over the last 3 cycles
Diminishing returns are no joke, this bull cycle was an ounce of 2017
Two simple thoughts:
-Diminishing returns to the upside are evident. Expect the same to downside
-Buying random coins and expecting meaningful returns in no longer a thing in crypto (beyond outliers that are a needle in a haystack)
You must learn to trade to properly extract from this market now
If not my advice is simple, buy and hold assets you think have a chance of decent returns over many months/years and put your focus elsewhere

$XRP
Incredible strength here over the last few days
$BTC fell over 15k and XRP held the local low from Nov 5th
This alt divergence has signaled reversals countless times this cycle
Over the last 3 months, anytime we saw a bid skew like we have now, it preceded at least a 10% move up

Deeper reflection about the road ahead (read along):
All I see now is everyone talking about the "bear market"
Have we asked what a bear market even is in this day and age?
95% of alts have been in bear market since 2022
Why would the ending be the same if the beginning was completely different than we have ever seen?
2017: Quick and parabolic - ridiculous gains across the board - every single alt did 10X multiples - retail driven
2021: Quick and parabolic - rapid repricing of assets due to printing 20% of total money supply - every alt did 10x multiples - retail/inflation driven
What caused

$XRP
We've reached the 12M rVWAP for the first time this year which really isn't a level we want to be trading under for awhile
If bulls lose this level, we are looking at the range low of $2 as the next area of interest
Otherwise $2.50 needs to regain to get out of danger area
Spot orderbooks are skewed towards bids right now which is positive, but snapping the local low will likely send us back to $2 where the rest of the bids sit

The bid/ask ratio (orderbook skew) is by far one of my favorite tools in the chest
Below are two indicators from Hyblock that use a global set of coins to display aggregated bid/ask depths and display a skew
This cycle has been the same story on repeat, watch out when asks heavily overtake the bids
And accumulate when the bids outweigh the asks

My new project recently has been capturing orderbook data on polymarket
People are printing, and no not just from "predicting"