Simple overview of the current market for Bitcoin

Today early morning, after the price of Bitcoin dropped, it has been stuck in the 95500-95800 range all day, with several attempts to break above 95800 followed by quick pullbacks. This tug-of-war reflects a dual battle between macro and technical factors.

On the macro side, December CPI remains steady at 2.6%, with a more than 70% chance of interest rate cuts in March. Additionally, spot ETF inflows over the past three days exceeded 1.7 billion, Blackstone saw a single-day inflow of 648 million, providing support for the market. However, tonight at 21:15, industrial output, at 23:00, the housing index, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials could all potentially disturb the market.

From a technical perspective, the 95800 level presents clear resistance, while 95500 remains a strong support. Trading volume has not shown extreme spikes, indicating that the current struggle is just a temporary tug-of-war between bulls and bears, not a trend reversal.

In the short term, focus on tonight’s signals: a breakout above 96500 could lead to a move higher, while a drop below 95000 might occur otherwise. The three long-term factors—halving, compliance, and institutional entry—remain intact, and the current volatility is just a buildup phase.