Gate’s premier crypto market maker, Wintermute, highlighted a signal in its latest market analysis released on June 2, 2026, that has put the market on high alert: the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market are experiencing their most significant "decoupling" of the year.
While the S&P 500 has posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain and the Nasdaq soared 8% in a single month, Bitcoin continues to bleed. According to Gate market data, as of June 3, 2026, the Bitcoin price stands at $67,000—significantly below its mid-May local high. This isn’t just a routine market correction. Behind it lies a structural capital redistribution driven by AI earnings, fundamentally reshaping the global pricing landscape for risk assets.
Why Is the AI Rally in US Stocks Leaving Crypto Behind?
Wintermute’s analysis offers a clear and sobering answer: the current surge in US stocks is powered by the tangible delivery of AI earnings. From Nvidia to Broadcom, AMD to cloud service providers, the AI industry is converting massive capital expenditures into real revenue and profit growth. The market’s most coveted closed loop is materializing: huge spending isn’t turning into a bubble, but is instead generating reliable cash flow within the supply chain.
Crypto, however, lacks this safety net. While US stocks can ignore high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, crypto assets are fully exposed to macroeconomic risk and have been ruthlessly "skipped" by Wall Street capital. This isn’t a crypto-specific headwind; it’s an extreme, selective allocation of risk assets—AI wins, crypto loses.
What Does the Record Crypto ETF Outflow Signal?
Capital flows paint a more unsettling picture than narratives alone. Since mid-May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen unprecedented, sustained redemptions. Bloomberg data shows that as of early June, ETFs have experienced net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with nearly $3.5 billion withdrawn—the longest streak since the products launched in January 2024.
This means that ETF net inflows for 2026 have officially turned negative. More importantly, BlackRock’s IBIT—long seen as a stable anchor for institutional holdings—has now appeared on the list of major net outflows. IBIT’s stability was once interpreted by the market as a sign that "long-term institutional funds won’t exit easily." When this implicit assumption is broken, the narrative shift it triggers can be even more impactful than the outflows themselves.
Additionally, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)—once a symbol of unwavering Bitcoin bullishness—sold 32 Bitcoins for the first time at the end of May. The quantity is small, but the psychological blow is significant. Meanwhile, CME Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023, further confirming waning institutional participation.
The "Balance Effect" of Macro Factors: Why Are US Stocks Unaffected by High Rates?
The macro picture is both contradictory and complex. In April 2026, overall PCE rose to 3.8%, and core PCE climbed to 3.3%, keeping inflation hot. The 10-year US Treasury yield previously dipped to 4.45%, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains at 35%–40%, far from being ruled out by the market.
Under normal macro logic, high rates and stubborn core inflation should suppress all risk asset valuations. Yet reality diverges—US AI stocks have almost entirely ignored rate pressure, thanks to robust earnings growth that offsets the impact of higher discount rates. Wintermute’s analysis notes that falling energy prices may lower overall inflation in coming months, but core inflation driven by services and wages remains sticky. In this "structural inflation divergence," crypto lacks fundamental earnings growth as a buffer, making it the most direct bearer of macro risk.
From a broader macro perspective, the deep driver of this capital migration is the fundamental difference in narrative fulfillment between two asset classes: AI is rapidly delivering on its capital expenditure supply chain, while most crypto projects, deprived of new liquidity, face a liquidation crisis marked by high FDV and failed value capture. This isn’t just a shift in capital direction—it’s a paradigm reassessment of "what kind of tech assets deserve valuation."
How Are Institutions Undergoing Structural Transformation?
For institutional investors, today’s dilemma is nearly one-way. As Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan describes: institutions face AI stocks setting new highs daily on one side, and crypto assets with an almost equal chance of major regulatory setbacks on the other. This asymmetric risk-reward profile makes rational allocators almost inevitably choose the former.
The data backs this up. K33 Research reports that while Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to stocks in the long term, persistent underperformance and heavy ETF outflows indicate the market sees the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin as too high—especially as AI-related assets continue to surge. CME Bitcoin futures open interest remains sluggish, which K33 explicitly calls "a clear symptom of institutions’ widespread lack of interest in Bitcoin."
Meanwhile, capital is gradually spreading from semiconductor hardware to software applications. Wintermute observes that software companies like Dell and Salesforce are absorbing AI capital flowing out of hardware. This broadens the scope of AI-themed investment and strengthens the "lock-in effect" for capital. Crypto isn’t just competing with a single sector—it’s facing a complete AI industry chain, from foundational computing power to applications, that is systematically absorbing liquidity.
Why Are Long-Term Investors Quietly Building Positions OTC?
Behind the market’s panic, Wintermute’s report also captures signals worth the attention of long-term investors: some holders are beginning to see current prices as highly attractive over an 18-month horizon, quietly accumulating via OTC desks using TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) strategies.
This isn’t a "bottom signal," but rather a structural behavioral observation. Long-term capital choosing OTC over public markets reveals two things: first, these investors aren’t in a rush, planning to accumulate gradually at average cost; second, OTC markets offer liquidity and price impact buffering unavailable in public markets, making them ideal for silent entry of large capital. This sharply contrasts with the rapid exit of short-term trading funds via ETFs—the former operates on monthly or yearly cycles, while the latter reacts in hours or days. The divergence in capital direction over the same time frame underscores that the market isn’t uniformly bearish, but is at a point of intense disagreement.
From a longer-term structural perspective, the core crypto narrative hasn’t been entirely replaced by the AI wave. Stablecoins are rapidly becoming foundational infrastructure for cross-border digital finance, and Layer 2 overcapacity is pushing the industry back toward real-world use cases. Wintermute predicts that if dApps truly emerge as the next cycle’s winners, the top 100 crypto market cap rankings will undergo a profound structural reshuffle. These long-term factors are easy to overlook in today’s sluggish market, but they are precisely why long-term capital dares to take contrarian positions.
Conclusion
The "decoupling" between crypto and US stocks isn’t a random technical divergence—it’s the inevitable result of the "capital black hole" effect created by AI earnings, which continues to siphon liquidity. Record Bitcoin ETF outflows, declining institutional participation, and persistently low CME futures open interest together send a clear signal: global risk capital allocation is undergoing structural adjustment. Yet, silent accumulation by long-term capital in OTC markets also deserves attention—not all participants are exiting in this tide of capital migration. For the crypto market, whether it can find its own place in the AI-driven narrative cycle will determine the speed and strength of its next value recovery.
FAQ
Q: What is the main reason for the decoupling between crypto and US stocks?
Wintermute’s analysis points to the core difference in AI industry earnings delivery. US AI companies can offset macro rate pressure with real profit growth, while the crypto market lacks similar performance support and is fully exposed to broader economic risk—hence Wall Street capital "skips" it.
Q: How large is the current Bitcoin ETF outflow?
As of early June 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with nearly $3.5 billion withdrawn—the longest streak since the products launched in January 2024. ETF net inflows for 2026 have officially turned negative.
Q: Why is the AI sector absorbing capital from the crypto market?
Analysts call this the "capital black hole" effect. The AI sector offers higher risk-adjusted return expectations, and capital flow data shows funds are spreading from semiconductor hardware to software (such as Dell and Salesforce), with demand shifting from "promises" to "actual earnings numbers."
Q: What does long-term accumulation in OTC markets signal?
Wintermute’s report notes that some long-term holders see current prices as attractive over an 18-month horizon and are gradually accumulating via OTC desks using TWAP strategies. This shows the market isn’t uniformly bearish, but is at a stage of intense capital disagreement.
