June 26, 2026, data released by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost drew widespread market attention: all major Ethereum whale groups now have negative unrealized profit ratios. Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have an unrealized profit ratio of -0.26; those with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH are at -0.21; and the largest whales, holding over 100,000 ETH, are at -0.05.
This marks the first time since 2019 that all three Ethereum whale cohorts are simultaneously in an unrealized loss position. Even during the deep bear market of 2022, whales with over 100,000 ETH still managed to stay profitable. This structural shift warrants a closer look.
As of June 26, 2026, according to Gate market data, Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $1,550.35 USD. The intraday low touched $1,512 USD, with the overall trend remaining weak and rebounds lacking momentum.
Why Do Unrealized Losses Vary Significantly Among the Three Whale Groups?
The degree of unrealized losses is not uniform across the three whale cohorts, and this disparity itself carries important market signals.
Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH are facing the steepest losses, with an unrealized profit ratio of -0.26. This group typically consists of high-net-worth individuals and small to mid-sized institutions. Their average entry cost is relatively high, making them more sensitive to price swings. The 10,000 to 100,000 ETH group sits in the middle, with a loss ratio of -0.21, usually representing large investment funds or family offices.
Most notably, the largest whales—those holding over 100,000 ETH—have the smallest unrealized loss at -0.05. This suggests their average entry cost is significantly lower than the other two groups. Even in the 2022 bear market, this cohort remained profitable, indicating earlier accumulation and more disciplined cost control.
The gradient of unrealized losses across these groups essentially reflects differences in cost management by capital size. The largest whales show far greater risk resilience, with their losses barely below breakeven.
Why Did the Largest Whales Stay Profitable in 2022 but Turn Negative Now?
In 2022, Ethereum fell from over $4,000 USD to below $1,000 USD—a drop of more than 75%. Yet, whales holding over 100,000 ETH still managed to stay profitable during that bear market.
The key difference lies in entry cost. During the 2022 downturn, the largest whales’ average entry price was well below the market bottom, keeping them in the black throughout the cycle. Today, however, the Ethereum price has dropped over 60% from its mid-2025 all-time high of around $5,000 USD. While this decline is less severe than in 2022, the largest whales’ cost basis has now overtaken the current price of $1,565.35 USD.
This means that even the most cost-efficient whales have seen their average entry price rise over the past few years. As prices kept falling, their profit cushion was gradually eroded, pushing them into unrealized losses by 2026. This shift signals that the current price adjustment has reached the most robust cost structures in the market.
What Does Prolonged Negative Whale Profitability Mean for Market Structure?
Data shows that whale unrealized profit ratios have stayed negative for several weeks—a pattern far more telling than a single-day dip.
Unrealized losses alone don’t directly trigger selling; they reflect paper losses, not realized ones. However, sustained losses over several weeks test the psychological limits of holders. For whales using leverage, ongoing losses mean higher margin requirements and increased liquidation risk.
From a market structure perspective, whales collectively in the red means the most capitalized and informed players are holding underwater positions. On a micro level, this weakens the market’s confidence base; on a macro level, it could prompt portfolio rebalancing. Some whales may choose to hold and wait for a rebound, while others may reduce exposure to manage risk. The interplay between these behaviors will directly impact the future supply-demand balance.
Does Whale Underwater Status Necessarily Trigger Large-Scale Selling?
Unrealized losses do not automatically lead to mass sell-offs. On-chain data offers some counterintuitive insights.
During the recent Ethereum price decline, some whale addresses not only refrained from selling but actually withdrew ETH from exchanges to custody wallets. This behavior suggests some large holders view current losses as temporary rather than a trend reversal. Moving assets off exchanges typically signals an intent to hold long-term rather than trade short-term.
On the other hand, whales with high-leverage long positions are under significant pressure. The logic for leveraged positions is very different from spot holdings—prolonged losses increase margin requirements, and if prices hit liquidation levels, forced selling is triggered.
Therefore, whether whale losses will turn into large-scale selling depends on the composition of their holdings. Whales dominated by spot holdings are more likely to wait or buy the dip, while those with high leverage face more urgent risk management needs. Both behaviors are currently present, putting the market at a crossroads.
Does Whale Underwater Status Signal a Reliable Market Bottom?
Darkfost notes in his analysis that historically, when the Ethereum market tests whale conviction, it often coincides with bottoming zones. This observation is supported by historical data, but should be interpreted with caution.
The last time Ethereum whales were collectively underwater was in 2019. At that time, the Ethereum price oscillated between $100 and $300 USD, then surged above $4,000 USD during the 2020–2021 bull run. In hindsight, the 2019 whale losses did mark a significant bottom.
However, the applicability of historical patterns must be assessed in the current context. By 2026, Ethereum’s market size, participant structure, and derivatives complexity have all far surpassed 2019. Whether the same bottom signal holds today depends on multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, on-chain activity, and ETF fund flows.
Collective whale losses are better seen as a "necessary condition" rather than a "sufficient condition"—an important reference for a bottoming zone, but not definitive proof that a bottom has been set.
What’s Driving Ethereum Down to $1,565 USD?
As of June 26, 2026, Ethereum is trading around $1,565 USD, more than 60% below its mid-2025 peak.
From a technical perspective, the MA5 and MA10 are at $1,568.88 USD and $1,567.82 USD, both slightly above the current price, while the MA30 sits at $1,604.05 USD. Short-term moving averages are capping price action, with medium-term resistance also evident. The EMA Cross (9,26) at $1,572.28 USD and $1,594.72 USD further confirms that the rebound has yet to reverse the bearish structure.
Zooming out, Ethereum’s ongoing decline is driven by multiple factors: On the macro side, US May PCE year-over-year rose to 4.1%, keeping risk appetite subdued. Within the industry, news of a 20% staff cut at the Ethereum Foundation has raised concerns about the ecosystem’s outlook. On the capital side, spot Ethereum ETFs have seen seven straight weeks of outflows.
These factors together form the fundamental backdrop for Ethereum’s current price action. Whale losses are occurring against this combined macro and micro backdrop.
Why Is On-Chain Activity Diverging from Price Trends?
One notable phenomenon: while Ethereum’s price continues to fall, on-chain activity has not shrunk in tandem.
During the recent downturn, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume on Ethereum rose from $900 million on June 22 to $1.3 billion on June 24, a roughly 36% increase. Stablecoin transaction volume on Ethereum remained steady at about $158 billion. Dollar-backed assets held on-chain have not migrated significantly despite the price drop.
This divergence between price and on-chain activity helps explain why, despite whale losses on paper, there hasn’t been a wave of panic-driven on-chain transfers. The network is still being used, transactions are still happening, and value continues to settle. This relative on-chain stability provides foundational support for price action at current levels.
Conclusion
For the first time since 2019, all three major Ethereum whale groups are in an unrealized loss position—a significant on-chain milestone. The largest whales, who stayed profitable through the 2022 bear market, have now dipped to a -0.05 unrealized profit ratio, highlighting the unique depth and structure of this downturn.
Whale losses persisting for weeks test the conviction of large holders and signal a rebalancing of supply and demand. While history suggests this often coincides with market bottoms, confirmation still requires a holistic view of on-chain activity, capital flows, and macro conditions.
As of June 26, 2026, Ethereum is trading near $1,565 USD, with technicals still showing a weak consolidation phase. The next moves by whales—whether to hold, buy the dip, or cut losses—will be key variables shaping short-term market direction.
FAQ
Q: How is Ethereum whale unrealized loss determined?
Unrealized loss is calculated using the Unrealized Profit Ratio, which is the difference between the current price and the entry cost, divided by the entry cost. A negative ratio means the market value of holdings is below the purchase cost.
Q: Why do the three whale groups have different loss levels?
The degree of unrealized loss directly reflects differences in average entry cost. The largest whales (over 100,000 ETH) have the shallowest losses (-0.05), indicating the lowest cost basis; those with 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have the deepest losses (-0.26), reflecting a higher average cost.
Q: Does whale underwater status mean the market has bottomed?
Historically, collective whale losses often coincide with market bottoms, but this is not a definitive signal. Investors should also consider on-chain activity, capital flows, and macroeconomic data for a comprehensive assessment.
Q: What is the market impact of prolonged whale losses?
Sustained losses gradually test holders’ psychological limits and risk management. Spot holders may choose to hold or buy the dip; leveraged holders may face forced liquidation. The interplay between these forces will influence short-term market direction.
