Big Bet Takes Action to Block Prediction Markets in Brazil

Betting companies have reportedly asked regulators to pause the operations of prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, in Brazil. The betting lobby argues that prediction market contracts constitute bets and should be blocked, as these platforms are unlicensed in the country.

Betting Lobby Attacks Prediction Markets in Brazil

Betting companies have taken action to stop prediction market platforms operating in Brazil.

According to Folha de S. Paulo, betting companies met with the Prizes and Betting Secretariat, Brazil’s gambling watchdog, to request a block on the operations of prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, in Brazil.

These companies complained about the unlicensed participation of these platforms in Brazil’s markets, as every local betting business pays a license fee of over $5.7 million and must comply with local regulations.

The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) considers that some of these markets, linked to economic and financial outcomes, resemble securities, and has approved the introduction of such contracts to the market.

Nonetheless, prediction markets still operate in a gray zone, as there is no regulation directly addressing the industry. This has led them to be legally restricted in certain countries.

Analysts differ on whether these platforms should fall under the oversight of the Prizes and Betting Secretariat under the Ministry of Finance, or under the CVM, and be treated as derivatives.

While Polymarket is not directly operating in Brazil, it allows Brazilian customers to access its infrastructure and invest in different prediction market contracts. Some of Kalshi’s contracts, on the other hand, will be available through Clear, a subsidiary of XP Group, which recently announced that it would allow international investors to access contracts focused on financial and economic events.

While analysts agree that it will be necessary to examine each contract individually to assess its classification, the Prizes and Betting Secretariat is currently monitoring the situation, “seeking to ensure consistency with the legal framework and prevent regulatory gaps.”

Brazil’s online betting market is sizeable, with over 25 million people participating in 2025, and the industry generating $6.68 billion in gross revenue. President Lula has recently vowed to ban online gambling because of its effects on the Brazilian family.

FAQ

• What action have betting companies taken regarding prediction market platforms in Brazil?

Betting companies have requested the Prizes and Betting Secretariat to block the operations of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, citing unlicensed participation.

• What are the licensing requirements for local betting businesses in Brazil?

Local betting companies must pay a license fee of over $5.7 million and comply with stringent regulations, which they argue should apply to all betting platforms.

• How does the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission view these prediction markets?

The CVM considers some prediction markets resembling securities, having approved the introduction of contracts related to economic and financial outcomes.

• What is the current status of regulation for prediction markets in Brazil?

Prediction markets operate in a gray zone without direct regulation, leading to differing opinions on whether they should be overseen by the Prizes and Betting Secretariat or the CVM.