Analysis points to the US easing NVIDIA export restrictions to China; Cerebras’ stock price continues to face challenges to its momentum

Cerebras Systems Inc. (Nasdaq ticker symbol CBRS) listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Its stock offering price surged immediately at the open from $185 per share to $350 per share, a gain of nearly 90%. Despite market subscription reaching as high as 20 times, Benzinga’s analysis says the stock price has been wildly volatile on the first day of trading, making it even more necessary to closely examine the company’s actual revenue structure, profitability, and operating risks. Even the IPOs with the highest subscription multiples in history have plummeted right after a first-day spike. NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang participated in the bilateral talks, and the stock price jumped on the news; the global chips market reshuffled again. For Cerebras, this is not a positive development. Pure market observation, not any investment advice.

Cerebras’ high valuation: behind the financial analysis

At the open, Cerebras’ share price kept climbing to $350. If measured against its expected 2025 revenue of $510 million, its price-to-earnings ratio is about 206x. With its current accumulated orders of $24.6 billion, plus management’s estimated confirmation rate of about 15% for 2026 and 2027, its annualized expected revenue is close to $1.85 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio is as high as 57x.

Cerebras’ prospectus shows that a GAAP net profit of $237.8 million is mainly driven by the settlement of deferred contract liabilities related to G42, not cash income. Company operations show a loss of $145.9 million. Investors buying CBRS stock are effectively paying a growth premium for a company that has yet to prove its ability to generate profits.

Cerebras’ hidden financial concerns

Market expectations for Cerebras’ growth are largely built on the $20 billion investment plan promised by OpenAI. However, related financial documents and media reports indicate that Cerebras will grant OpenAI warrants worth up to 10% of shares. If valued based on the $350 opening price, the value of those warrants could reach $9.4 billion, almost half of the expected transaction gross profit. This creates a significant gap between the real economic benefit and the accounting revenue.

Geopolitical risk

Cerebras’ current revenue sources show a high degree of concentration. According to its official prospectus, MBZUAI AI University contributed 62% of 2025 revenue, while UAE tech giant G42 contributed 24%. As for the OpenAI and Amazon Web Services (AWS) that the market is focused on, they are backlog orders and have not yet translated into meaningful revenue. This customer mix will leave Cerebras facing geopolitical risk at any time. The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regularly reviews and adjusts export controls on semiconductors and advanced computing chips. Any export controls targeting the Middle East or the UAE will directly impact Cerebras’ business. Compared with geopolitical advantages of competitors such as NVIDIA, Cerebras’ risk exposure is clearly too high.

NVIDIA’s stock hits historic highs—good news for CBRS, not in fact

Jensen Huang’s participation in the bilateral talks rekindled expectations for NVIDIA. The U.S. has now approved NVIDIA to sell H 200 chips to major Chinese companies, including Alibaba and Tencent. With chip restrictions eased, NVIDIA will gain a large source of revenue. After NVIDIA’s positive news was released, it reinforced its position as the leader in AI chips. Investors may buy CBRS alongside the optimism, but if this wave starts to shift toward NVIDIA, then CBRS’ stock price will lack sustained momentum.

This article, analyzing that the U.S. easing of export restrictions for NVIDIA to China and that Cerebras’ stock price momentum faces challenges, first appeared on the Chain News ABMedia.