Analyst Cowen Warns Bitcoin Rally May Be Bear Market Rebound

Cryptocurrency strategist Benjamin Cowen has cautioned investors that recent Bitcoin rallies may represent temporary rebounds within a broader bear market rather than the start of a sustained bull season. Cowen stated he continues to view the market through “bear glasses,” warning that short-term price movements should not mislead investors into believing a true bull run has begun.

Historical Cycle Parallels

Cowen pointed to similarities between current market movements and bear market rallies from 2014, 2018, and 2019, arguing that the current price action mirrors patterns from those previous cycles. According to the analyst, Bitcoin typically experiences lows in February and April/May, followed by rallies lasting several months.

Price Level Resistance

Cowen noted that Bitcoin often approaches or surpasses the 200-day moving average during these temporary rallies. However, he emphasized that in past cycles, these technical levels have frequently resulted in “rejection,” preventing sustained upward momentum.

Bottom Prediction

Cowen reiterated his prediction that a true market bottom will only materialize in the last quarter of the year, particularly around October. This forecast suggests he expects current price rallies to face resistance before a more significant decline occurs.

Altcoin Outlook

The analyst painted a pessimistic picture for altcoin investors, stating that Bitcoin dominance continues to increase while altcoins continue to lose value against Bitcoin.

*This is not investment advice.