Arthur Hayes: The Bitcoin bull market began on February 28, with a target to return to $126k

According to the latest blog post published on May 12 by crypto trader and Maelstrom Fund manager Arthur Hayes, Hayes said that the Bitcoin bull market truly began when the Iran–U.S. conflict erupted on February 28. Hayes expects that once Bitcoin breaks through $90k, the rally will accelerate, and reclaiming the $126k all-time high is “inevitable.”

Macroeconomic Drivers: AI CapEx, War Spending, and Fiat Expansion

In his blog post, Hayes believes the following macro factors will continue to drive fiat credit expansion and benefit Bitcoin:

First, the scale of AI capital expenditures is unprecedented. Both the U.S. and China see AI supremacy as a core element of national security. Hayes said that both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are easing financial conditions, providing funding for AI and technology construction.

Second, the ongoing Iran–U.S. conflict keeps pushing military and infrastructure spending higher.

Third, Hayes pointed out that as countries lose trust in dollar-denominated assets, they will gradually shift savings toward real-world infrastructure and bulk commodity reserves rather than U.S. Treasuries. This requires central banks to provide more fiat liquidity to fill the gap. Hayes also noted that the U.S. is advancing bank regulatory adjustments related to the expanded Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR), allowing banks to hold a higher proportion of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks under a given capital base, further supporting liquidity. Hayes said these factors will continue at least until before the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

Bitcoin Outlook and Maelstrom Position

According to Hayes’ blog post, he said that Bitcoin bottomed out earlier this year at $60k, and since the Iran–U.S. conflict erupted on February 28, 2026, Bitcoin’s performance has outpaced gold, the Nasdaq 100 index, and IGV.

Hayes predicts that after Bitcoin breaks through $90k, the rally will further accelerate because a large number of sellers of bullish options will be forced to close positions as the strike prices they issued will be breached, creating a Gamma squeeze effect. He reiterated that reclaiming the $126k all-time high is “inevitable,” and has raised the risk exposure of Maelstrom’s portfolio to the maximum.

Hayes also said that changes in political attitudes toward AI construction and inflation during the 2028 U.S. presidential election could pose some obstacles to the rally.

Altcoin Allocation: HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR

According to Hayes’ blog post, he said the altcoins he currently holds the most are Hyperliquid ($HYPE) and Zcash ($ZEC). The next most promising altcoin is NEAR ($NEAR). Hayes said that in subsequent articles he will explain how NEAR’s privacy philosophy and Intent Architecture can create positive cash flow for the protocol, thereby driving token price performance. Hayes concluded the article by saying: “Now is a bull market. There’s always a time to sell, but it’s not time yet.”

FAQ

What are the publication date of Arthur Hayes’ blog post and the timing of the Bitcoin bull market start?

According to the blog post published by Arthur Hayes on May 12, 2026, Hayes said that the Bitcoin bull market truly began when the Iran–U.S. conflict erupted on February 28, 2026. Bitcoin bottomed out earlier this year at $60k.

What are Hayes’ specific predictions and target price for the $90k Bitcoin level?

According to Hayes’ blog post, he expects that after Bitcoin breaks through $90k, bullish options sellers will be forced to close positions, forming a Gamma squeeze that accelerates the rally. Hayes reiterated that reclaiming the $126k all-time high is “inevitable,” and has raised Maelstrom’s portfolio risk exposure to the maximum.

Which altcoin targets does Hayes currently favor?

According to Hayes’ blog post, the altcoins he currently holds the most are Hyperliquid ($HYPE) and Zcash ($ZEC). He said the next most promising altcoin is NEAR ($NEAR), and he will explain in later articles the investment logic behind its privacy philosophy and Intent Architecture.