Binance Research released a weekly chart analysis on May 18, and all four on-chain signals point in the same direction: Bitcoin supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted. About 60% of BTC has not moved for over a year; the short-term versus long-term holder value ratio is deep in the bottom range. Exchange balances have fallen to a 6-year low of 15.0%; about 500k BTC have permanently left. Meanwhile, the short-term holder MVRV ratio has risen back to 1.0.
Signal 1: Long-term dormancy rate — confirmed data
According to Binance Research data:
Current dormancy rate: About 60% of BTC supply has not been transferred for over a year
Historical comparison: 27% in the same period of 2012
Historical peak: Reached 69.5% in January 2024, matching the spot Bitcoin ETF approval timeframe
Current status: After ETF approval there was selling, but the long-term dormancy rate still remains near historical high levels
Binance Research said that keeping the long-term dormancy rate at a high level shows that “long-term holders’ confidence in Bitcoin is still strong.”
Signal 2: SLRV ratio — confirmed data
According to Binance Research confirmation:
Current status: The SLRV (short-term long-term holder value ratio) is deep in the historical bottom range
Market structure: Long-term holders dominate the supply; short-term speculators have basically exited
Historical pattern: Binance Research confirmed that in every past market cycle, the bottom of the SLRV ratio entering the bottom range coincided with the appearance of the cycle bottom.
Signal 3: Exchange balances — confirmed data
According to Binance Research confirmation:
COVID-period peak: 17.6%
Current balance: 15.0%
Amount exiting: About 500k BTC have permanently left exchanges
Available seller supply: Falls to the lowest level in 6 years
Signal 4: STH MVRV ratio — confirmed data
According to Binance Research confirmation:
Since November 2024: For most of the time, the STH MVRV ratio has stayed below 1.0, gradually easing selling pressure
Historical pattern: Binance Research noted that this dynamic has historically matched cycle bottoms
Current status: The STH MVRV ratio has risen back to 1.0
Binance Research said that rising back to 1.0 “marks the start of short-term holders rebuilding unrealized gains,” and confirmed that “current profit accumulation is still in an early stage.”
FAQ
What is the SLRV ratio, and how does Binance Research use it to judge market positioning?
SLRV (Short-Long Term Realized Value) is the ratio of the realized value of short-term holders to that of long-term holders. Based on Binance Research analysis, SLRV being deep in the bottom range indicates weak market sentiment, and in each past cycle bottom, this ratio entering the bottom range has coincided. During this period, long-term holders dominate the supply.
What does the BTC exchange balance falling to 15.0% mean?
According to Binance Research data, the exchange balance has fallen from a COVID-period peak of 17.6% to the current 15.0%, meaning that about 500k BTC have permanently left exchanges. As a result, available seller supply has dropped to the lowest level in 6 years, and the number of bitcoins available to sell in the public market has been significantly reduced.
What market condition does STH MVRV rising back to 1.0 indicate?
According to Binance Research analysis, keeping STH MVRV below 1.0 means short-term holders are overall sitting on unrealized losses on paper, and sell pressure is being alleviated. Rising back to 1.0 means that short-term holders’ on-paper gains return to a balance point (market value equals realized value); short-term holders start rebuilding unrealized gains.
