According to SoSoValue data, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $277 million in net outflows on Thursday, ending a five-day inflow streak that had accumulated $1.69 billion. Spot ether ETFs posted $104 million in outflows the same day, with none of the 10 funds recording net inflows. Bitcoin traded below $80,000 on Friday amid the reversal.
The outflow coincided with renewed tensions over the Iran-U.S. ceasefire, with prediction markets pricing a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15. Iranian officials accused Washington of violating agreed terms, and reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double the consensus forecast of 62,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. However, perpetual swap markets are pricing more than 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by April 2027, reflecting hawkish macro repricing despite the strong employment data.