JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reported that Bitcoin is gaining over gold as the debasement trade following the Iran conflict, as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to attract inflows while gold ETFs struggle to recover outflows. According to the analysts, retail investors are choosing Bitcoin (BTC) over gold as a hedge against weakening fiat currencies during geopolitical tensions.
Retail Investor Rotation
Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for a third straight month in May, the JPMorgan analysts said. Gold ETFs, meanwhile, remain unable to recover the outflows they experienced in March when the Iran conflict erupted. The analysts characterized this pattern as “the debasement trade rotates from gold to bitcoin,” noting that the debasement trade refers to investors buying assets like gold or bitcoin to protect against currency debasement, particularly during geopolitical tensions or inflation concerns. Earlier in March, the analysts also noted a sharp difference in flows between Bitcoin and gold ETFs after the Iran conflict began.
Institutional and Momentum Demand
Bitcoin buying has not been limited to retail investors through ETFs. JPMorgan’s positioning proxies based on CME Bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures have reached new highs, suggesting institutional investors have increased exposure as well. The analysts also noted that momentum signals for Bitcoin and gold, used as proxies for positioning by momentum traders such as commodity trading advisors, have rebounded for Bitcoin since the start of the Iran conflict.
Corporate Accumulation Through Strategy
Investors’ Bitcoin buying is also occurring indirectly through Michael Saylor’s Strategy, whose ownership is almost equally split between retail and institutional investors, according to the analysts. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally and has been accumulating Bitcoin at a faster pace this year. If the current pace continues, its Bitcoin buying could reach around $30 billion this year, the analysts said.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,120, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s Bitcoin price page.
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