BMO Cuts Gold Price Forecast to $4,625 per Ounce on Fed's Hawkish Shift

According to BMO Capital Markets, the bank lowered its gold price forecast for the second half of 2026 to average around $4,625 per ounce, down 5% from its previous projection. The revision comes as the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance weighs on precious metals, with the central bank signaling support for at least one rate hike before year-end.

Despite near-term weakness, BMO maintained a long-term outlook for gold to push above $5,000 in the first quarter of 2027. The bank also downgraded its silver forecast to $69 per ounce for Q3, though it expects recovery to $71 per ounce in Q4 2026 and further gains to $74.80 per ounce in Q2 2027. The Fed's rate hike expectations have solidified market positioning, with two-year Treasury yields posting their largest jump since April 2025.