BTC 15-minute short-term rebound 0.60%: Key support level held plus options expiry driving technical repair

During the period from 15:15 to 15:30 UTC on June 26, 2026, BTC rose 0.60% in the short term, rebounding from $59,780 to $60,370.3, with an amplitude of 0.99%. After breaking below the psychological level of $60,000 the previous day and hitting a 21-month low of $58,115, the market experienced an oversold rebound, with increased volatility but significantly heightened attention.

The main driving forces of this anomaly were the resonance between the activation of technical support levels and the release of derivatives pressure. The $58,000-$60,000 range, as a resonance area of long-term retracement and historical support, triggered a selling exhaustion low after RSI touched the oversold zone of 32.343. At the same time, approximately $10.6 billion in options on Deribit expired and settled on June 26, and the unwinding of a large number of out-of-the-money call options significantly reduced short-term selling pressure. In addition, the $1.48 billion in leveraged liquidations the previous day had completed speculative clearance, stabilizing the market liquidity structure.

Second, the stabilization of macro expectations drove risk appetite recovery. Although the US PCE price index rose to 4.1%, a new high since March 2023, the data met expectations and was lower than the worst-case scenario, easing market concerns about aggressive Fed rate hikes, and the two-year Treasury yield fell slightly. On-chain data showed that whale activity hit a six-week high, with over 10,000 large transfers suggesting that long-term holders and large wallets are actively absorbing supply, controlling over 35% of the available circulating supply.

However, the sustainability of the rebound remains highly uncertain. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of $469 million for the fifth consecutive day, with total outflows this month reaching nearly $3 billion, indicating significant institutional capital outflow pressure. The persistently negative Coinbase premium index suggests that US institutions still dominate selling, and inflation stickiness coupled with a strengthening dollar is driving capital rotation into traditional assets. If macro stock markets come under pressure, BTC may face downside risks again.