BTC up 0.64% in 15 min: Short squeeze and ETF inflows resonate to drive short-term surge

On July 7, 2026, from 12:00 to 12:15 (UTC), BTC quickly rose 0.64% in 15 minutes, with the price surging from $63,399.3 to $63,874.2 USDT, a volatility of 0.75%. Against the backdrop of a rebound of over 10% from $58,250 in early July, the price anomaly that day signaled further warming of market sentiment.

The main driver of this anomaly was a short squeeze in the futures market. Data shows that from July 6 to July 7, short-term liquidation amounts reached $86.60M, far exceeding long-term liquidations of $54.01M, with a large number of shorts being forcibly liquidated as the price broke through. Over $450 million worth of short-term shorts triggered mechanical buying, concentratedly erupting within the 15-minute window, pushing the price up rapidly by about $400, forming a positive cycle of "price rise → short covering buying → further price rise".

Meanwhile, institutional demand showed marginal improvement. The spot ETF saw a net inflow of $221.72M on July 2, ending a previous streak of 10 consecutive days of cumulative net outflows of $2.7B; on July 7, it recorded another net inflow of $46.6M, indicating institutional sentiment is recovering. Secondly, the US added only 57,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, well below the expected approximately 110,000, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate cut. As a "pure interest rate asset", BTC is highly sensitive to monetary policy, and the shift in macro expectations provided fundamental support for the price rise. Additionally, on-chain circulating supply continues to shrink, with BTC reserves on exchanges dropping from about 3.3 million coins in early 2022 to about 3 million coins in May 2026, with lower circulating supply amplifying price elasticity.

In terms of risk warnings, attention should be paid: this increase was partly driven by short squeezing, with sustainability in doubt; momentum may fade once positions are cleared; the $64,500-65,000 range has significant technical resistance, historically causing price pullbacks multiple times; the 30-day cumulative net outflow of ETFs still stands at -$6.16B, and institutional demand has not fundamentally reversed. Going forward, close monitoring of ETF fund flows and the results of the Fed meeting at the end of July is needed; if institutional demand fails to continue improving, prices may face correction pressure.