CLARITY Act Passage Odds Cut to 60% as Midterm Pressures Tighten Senate Calendar

According to Galaxy Digital, the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 dropped from 75% in May to 60% in June, as the midterm election cycle compresses the congressional calendar. The bill, which aims to establish a federal framework for digital asset markets and clarify SEC and CFTC oversight of tokens, has cleared the House and advanced through relevant Senate committees but still requires floor time and reconciliation with the House version.

The main remaining obstacle is an unresolved dispute over stablecoin yield arrangements. Banks argue such products can function as uninsured deposit substitutes, while crypto firms warn that overly restrictive rules could undermine market competition and push activity offshore. Galaxy Research later further reduced passage odds to 50%, citing the compressed legislative calendar and absence of a final Senate package.