Connected Polymarket Accounts Made $2.4M on Iran-War Bets With 98% Win Rate, Triggering U.S. National Security Concerns

According to a CBS/60 Minutes investigation with Bubblemaps, nine connected Polymarket accounts earned more than $2.4 million on Iran-war bets recently, recording a 98% win rate across 80+ trades. The accounts won markets tied to specific milestones including the first U.S. strikes, Iran's supreme leader removal, and ceasefire announcements. Bubblemaps co-founder Nicolas Vaiman told CBS that luck alone could not explain the accuracy and coordination.

More than $1 billion has been staked on military decisions and outcomes this year on prediction markets, raising concerns that nonpublic information could carry direct financial value. U.S. lawmakers are responding with legislative efforts to ban prediction contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and death. The case follows the April arrest of U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, allegedly charged with using classified information for Polymarket bets.