Prediction Market

BlockBeats News, February 10 — According to Fortune magazine, Polymarket announced today that it will partner with Kaito AI. Kaito AI is a research and data aggregation platform focused on the crypto space. Through this collaboration, users will be able to bet on trends, brand and individual attention, and public opinion directions.

Logan Paul's $1 million wager on Polymarket during the Super Bowl was exposed as a promotional stunt, not a genuine bet. Analysts found no balance in his account to support the wager, raising concerns about undisclosed promotional ties and misleading advertising in prediction markets.

Jump Trading will provide liquidity to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for equity, creating a new model of "liquidity as investment" to enhance the liquidity of prediction markets. This model makes market makers stakeholders in the platform but also raises potential conflicts of interest. The future potential of prediction markets is enormous, estimated to reach $100 billion.

Jump Trading, a global proprietary trading powerhouse, is strategically entering the prediction market arena. In exchange for providing crucial market-making services, the firm will acquire equity stakes in two leading platforms: Kalshi and Polymarket. This move is significant as it signals deepening institutional interest and validation for the rapidly growing prediction market sector. For the industry, it means enhanced liquidity, stability, and a major endorsement from a traditional f

On the blockchain prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Second Coming of Jesus in 2026" prediction contract has doubled to about 4%, an increase of over 170%, outperforming the underperforming Bitcoin. Although most contracts are for entertainment purposes, their investment returns reflect the speculative frenzy driven by online attention, making it a peculiar sight in the crypto market.

Recent insider trading issues in prediction markets have garnered widespread attention, with founders expressing concerns about suspicious wallet addresses involved in transactions. Insider trading is considered fraudulent behavior, involving a breach of trust and commitments to others. This article clarifies that commitments are central to identifying insider trading and emphasizes that legal applicability also exists in prediction markets. As prediction markets expand, the boundaries of insider trading may become blurred.

In a landmark move that blurs the lines between sports, finance, and technology, Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has become a shareholder in Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform. This investment marks the first time an active NBA player has directly invested in the company, signaling a significant shift in how athletes engage with the burgeoning event-trading industry. The partnership arrives at a critical juncture for the NBA, which is currently navig

NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo announces he has joined the prediction market platform Kalshi as a shareholder, becoming the first active player to invest in the market. However, this move has sparked fierce backlash from fans, mainly due to his facing trade rumors and potential conflicts of interest. Kalshi also faces legal lawsuits and a Massachusetts injunction, and has been criticized for a user loss rate higher than traditional betting platforms.

Polymarket partners with Circle to switch from bridged USDC.e to native USDC for all settlements. This upgrade enhances security, reduces bridge risk, and signals a push for institutional-grade infrastructure in the fast-growing onchain prediction market space.

Bitcoin price accelerates downward to $60,000, with nearly $2.7 billion in liquidations across the network, marking the worst single-day decline since 2022. Although capital outflows are only 6.6%, analysts point out that the 200-day moving average is a key support level. Market liquidity is weak, and there are no signs of a bottom yet, with a potential risk of further decline to $38,000.

Recent security incidents linked to wallet software have once again highlighted a central truth of crypto ownership: self-custody comes with responsibility. Following reports tied to a browser extension issue involving Trust Wallet Hack, users across the ecosystem are reassessing how they

Charles Schwab CEO Wurster stated that economic and financial prediction markets can provide signals for investors, but he explicitly opposes sports betting, claiming it diverges from their mission. After the CFTC lifted the political ban, monthly trading volume skyrocketed from $2 billion last summer to $17.5 billion in January, with most of the volume coming from sports contracts.

In brief Vitalik Buterin has argued that the creator coin ecosystem could be improved by the introduction of prediction markets and DAOs. The Ethereum co-founder suggests that prediction markets would bet on which creator coins would gain membership into creator DAOs, which would be

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Prediction Market Opinion has announced the completion of a $20 million Series A funding round, with Hack VC, Jump Crypto, Primitive Ventures, Decasonic, and others participating. Currently, its trading scope has expanded to macroeconomics, pre-token issuance events, culture, and cryptocurrencies, covering data such as CPI figures. The data shows that the company is currently handling about one-third of global prediction market trading volume, with open contracts exceeding 1.3

At the 2026 Grammy Awards, host Trevor Noah's "potato" joke drew significant attention to the prediction market Polymarket and sparked regulatory and legality controversies. Prediction markets are expanding from politics to entertainment and sports, but the emerging regulatory issues pose challenges to their future development.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that a16z General Partner Guy Wuollet posted on X that a16z will lead a $2.5 million seed round investment in prediction market platform Kairos, which will provide the fastest prediction market trading services for professional traders.

Prediction markets are market mechanisms based on trading future event outcomes, where contracts are bought and sold to forecast event probabilities. The article specifically introduces the mechanisms of order book trading, arbitrage strategies, and participant roles, emphasizing the influence of sentiment and value mismatches. Participants are advised to utilize AI tools and subjective judgment to identify opportunities and conduct practical testing, while also emphasizing risk management and continuous learning.

As the United States enters day four of a partial federal government shutdown tied to unresolved funding for Homeland Security, prediction markets are signaling that traders expect disruption—but not a prolonged Washington standoff. Shutdown Backdrop Traders Are Pricing In The partial shutdown

HIP-4 introduces outcome trading with fixed ranges, no leverage, and no liquidation risk, expanding Hyperliquid’s derivatives stack. Contracts stay fully collateralized from open to settlement, supporting prediction markets and limited-risk options trading. The upgrade opens

Cboe Global Markets is considering reintroducing binary options for retail investors to compete with the growing prediction market. These options promise fixed returns based on price conditions but faced past challenges. Enhanced regulatory compliance is emphasized this time.