CryptoQuant: April’s BTC rise was driven by perpetual futures, warning of correction risk

On May 1, blockchain data analytics company CryptoQuant released a report saying that Bitcoin’s 20% rise in April—from $66,000 to $79,000—was almost entirely driven by perpetual contract longs, while spot demand remained weak throughout. The overall structure is similar to the early stage of the 2022 bear market, and correction risk has increased. CNBC cited CryptoQuant’s research head’s interpretation: “The clearest on-chain signal that the price increase was driven by leverage rather than new buying is the divergence between expanding perpetual contract demand and contracting spot demand.”

April’s 20% rally: perpetual contracts propped it up, spot demand negative

CryptoQuant’s “Apparent Demand” indicator, which tracks on-chain spot buying, stayed negative throughout April—meaning actual on-chain buying activity shrank. During the same period, however, the long positions in the perpetual futures market continued to expand, pushing the price from about $66,000 at the beginning of April to $79,000 by month-end. This outlet’s concurrent observation on 5/2 found that BTC held around $78,000, but CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis suggests that this level lacks structural spot support.

CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index” fell from 50 to 40 in April, re-entering the bearish range. In historical records, when this index has remained below 40 for multiple consecutive months, BTC typically struggles to sustain new highs, and correction pressure tends to materialize within the following weeks to months.

Same signals as the early 2022 bear market: perpetual-driven, spot absent

CryptoQuant’s report specifically points out that the “perpetual-driven + spot absence” structure in April is highly similar to the on-chain signals seen before the start of the 2022 bear market. Back then, BTC also experienced a rebound driven by perpetual contract longs, but Apparent Demand for spot similarly stayed contracted and ultimately ended with months of continued declines.

The research head warned: “Historically, rebounds in this kind of structure usually get completed by liquidation through closing of the perpetual positions. Unless on-chain spot demand turns from negative to positive, any attempt to retest $79,000 lacks on-chain support and is unlikely to form a sustainable breakout.”

Next to watch: timing of closing perpetual positions, signals of spot buying returning

The next thing to watch is when perpetual contract long positions begin to unwind—if large-scale closing happens while spot buying has not returned, it could trigger a sharp drop in the short term. Another thing to watch is whether CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand indicator can turn from negative to positive—this is a key signal for determining whether the market is shifting from an “impulsive rebound” to a “structural bullish trend.”

This article CryptoQuant: BTC’s April rally driven by perpetual contracts, warns of correction risk first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.