CryptoQuant characterized Bitcoin's recent rebound as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal despite improving demand metrics and historically strong July seasonality. The onchain analytics firm reported Bitcoin rebounded approximately 10% from last week's low of around $57,700 to trade near $63,000, reclaiming the $60,000 level as key support. CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno noted that July has historically been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months, with the cryptocurrency rallying roughly 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022 during bear-market years, though the firm's Bull Score Index currently stands at 20—well below the 60 level needed to support a sustainable rally.
Bitcoin Shows Historical July Seasonality Pattern
CryptoQuant said July has been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months over the past ten years, closing higher in most years. Moreno stated the effect is pronounced in down-cycles, with Bitcoin rallying roughly 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022 even as the broader trend stayed weak. The firm noted that with Bitcoin entering July fresh off a bear-market low, this seasonal pattern skews the near-term risk toward further upside.
30-Day Demand Recovers From June Contraction
The 30-day total Bitcoin demand, which combines spot and perpetual futures activity, has recovered from its sharpest contraction since 2022 and is now close to neutral after falling by about 650,000 BTC in early June, according to CryptoQuant. The firm said speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May. Moreno noted that a move back into positive territory would confirm that the demand engine is re-igniting.
Coinbase Premium Index Signals U.S. Demand Stabilization
CryptoQuant reported U.S. investor demand has improved. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, recovered from deeply negative levels in early June to -0.062 as Bitcoin rebounded from its lows. The firm said this suggests selling pressure on U.S. exchanges has eased and institutional demand is stabilizing.
Unrealized Profit Margin Indicates Undervaluation
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's recent undervaluation points to further room for recovery. The firm reported traders' unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June, well below CryptoQuant's -12% undervaluation threshold. CryptoQuant noted that historically, such extreme readings have often coincided with local market bottoms as short-term holders capitulate, and the metric has since started recovering alongside Bitcoin's rebound from around $57,700.
Bull Score Index Remains in Bearish Territory
CryptoQuant stated broader market conditions remain weak despite improving signals. The firm's Bull Score Index, which combines onchain, market and valuation indicators, currently stands at 20, well within bearish territory and far below the 60 level the firm says is needed to support a sustainable rally and a true bull market. CryptoQuant concluded that until then, the recent rebound is best viewed as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal.
FAQ
What did CryptoQuant say about Bitcoin's recent rebound?
CryptoQuant characterized Bitcoin's recent rebound as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal. The firm reported Bitcoin rebounded approximately 10% from last week's low of around $57,700 to trade near $63,000, but noted the Bull Score Index stands at 20—well below the 60 level needed to support a sustainable rally.
How has Bitcoin performed in July during bear-market years?
According to CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin rallied roughly 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022 during bear-market years, even as the broader trend stayed weak. The firm said July has been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months over the past ten years.
What does the Coinbase Premium Index indicate about U.S. demand?
CryptoQuant reported the Coinbase Premium Index recovered from deeply negative levels in early June to -0.062 as Bitcoin rebounded from its lows. The firm said this suggests selling pressure on U.S. exchanges has eased and institutional demand is stabilizing.
