CryptoQuant: BTC’s April rally was driven by perpetual futures, warning of correction risks

On May 1, the on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant released a report stating that Bitcoin’s 20% rise from $66,000 to $79,000 in April was almost entirely driven by perpetual futures long positions, while spot demand remained weak. The overall structure was similar to the early phase of the 2022 bear market, and correction risk has increased. CNBC cited CryptoQuant’s head of research as saying: “The divergence between expanding perpetual futures demand and contracting spot demand is the clearest on-chain signal that the price increase is driven by leverage rather than new buying.”

April’s 20% gain: Perpetual futures propping up alone, spot demand negative

CryptoQuant’s “Apparent Demand” indicator, which tracks on-chain spot buy-side activity, stayed negative throughout April—meaning actual on-chain buying activity shrank. During the same period, however, long positions in the perpetual futures market continued to expand, pushing the price from about $66,000 at the beginning of April all the way to $79,000 by month-end. This outlet’s concurrent observation on 5/2 found that BTC held around $78,000, but CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis shows that this price level lacks structural spot support.

CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index” fell from 50 to 40 in April, re-entering bearish territory. Historically, when this index stays below 40 for consecutive months, it is typically difficult for BTC to maintain new highs, and correction pressure tends to materialize within the following weeks to months.

Same signals as the start of the 2022 bear market: Perpetual-driven, spot absent

CryptoQuant’s report specifically pointed out that the “perpetual-driven + spot absence” structure in April closely resembled the on-chain signals seen before the start of the 2022 bear market. Back then, BTC also experienced a rebound driven by perpetual futures longs, but spot Apparent Demand also remained in contraction—ultimately ending with months of continued downside.

The research head warned: “Historically, rebounds with this structure are usually completed through liquidations when perpetual positions get closed. Unless on-chain spot demand turns from negative to positive, any attempts to challenge $79,000 again lack on-chain support and are unlikely to form a sustainable breakout.”

Next watch items: Timing of perpetual position closures, spot buying return signals

The next thing to monitor is when perpetual futures long positions begin to unwind—if large-scale closing happens before spot buying recovers, it could trigger a sharp drop in the short term. Another point is whether CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand indicator can turn from negative to positive—this is the key signal to determine whether the move shifts from a “speculative rebound” to a “structural long” setup.

This article CryptoQuant: BTC’s April rally driven by perpetual futures, warns of correction risk appeared earliest on Chain News ABMedia.