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Economist: Bank of Canada's Neutral Rate Estimate May Be 50 Basis Points Too High

2026-07-09 13:45:01

According to Jin10, on July 9, economist David Watt from Rosenberg Research said Canada's neutral interest rate may be around 50 basis points lower than the Bank of Canada's current estimate of 2.25%–3.25%. Watt's estimate is 1.75%–2.75%, citing population decline, stalled capital stock growth over two decades, and persistent U.S. trade policy uncertainty as key factors lowering the neutral rate.

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