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Economists Raise U.S. Inflation Forecasts, Push Back Fed Rate Cut to December on May 22

GateNews
Forex
According to Jin10, on May 22, economists raised their inflation forecasts for the U.S. as the price shock from the Iran conflict spreads beyond energy costs. They now expect core PCE and the broader inflation gauge to exceed previous estimates, with both measures remaining above 3% through year-end. Economic forecasters are now evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, versus earlier surveys that predicted a rate cut in October. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Corp, noted the similarity to previous cycles, with the Fed concerned that surging energy prices could spark inflation, as with tariff concerns last year. The latest survey shows economists maintain their 2% growth forecasts for consumer spending and GDP this year, while the probability of recession within 12 months declined to 25%.
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