On May 22, 2026, the U.S.-Iran situation once again became a core variable driving global financial markets. Iranian media earlier claimed that the final draft of a U.S.-Iran agreement had been reached and would be published within a few hours, but this was immediately rebutted by Al Jazeera, which said the report was “fabricated.” U.S. Secretary of State Rubio later clarified that while the negotiations had made progress, there was no guarantee of a final deal, and he did not want to appear overly optimistic. Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, took a hardline stance, saying that “we will not give in during negotiations.”
Against this backdrop, price volatility across all kinds of assets is highly dependent on fragmented, real-time updates to negotiation news. Each report about being “close to a deal” or still seeing “major disagreements” can trigger short-term price pulses. This information-driven pattern makes it difficult for the market to form stable directional expectations, leaving risk assets in a state of heightened alert. As U.S. Vice President Vance said on May 19, negotiations had achieved “major progress,” but the U.S. side also had a “Plan B” to restart military action. A negotiation strategy of two-way pressure, in essence, exacerbates market uncertainty rather than eliminating it.
How the Strait of Hormuz Toll Proposal Could Reshape Global Energy Risk Premiums
Beyond the core differences in the talks, Iran is pushing an issue that could profoundly change the structure of global energy trade—the Strait of Hormuz toll system. According to Bloomberg, Iran is in discussions with Oman to establish permanent tolls for commercial vessels. Before the conflict, the strait carried about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport, making it a genuine artery of energy.
Iran’s ambassador in France stated clearly that the costs of maintaining the strait’s security and shipping management should be jointly borne by the user countries. The report noted that Iran has set up a “Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority,” and some vessels have received security transit fee demands as high as $2 million. Trump publicly opposed the proposal, saying the strait is an “international waterway” and that no toll arrangement will be accepted.
The impact of this proposal goes far beyond shipping itself. If a permanent toll system is implemented, it would inject a structural risk premium into international oil prices— even if hostilities cease, the transit cost of the Strait of Hormuz would remain a long-term support factor for energy prices. As crude oil is a key macro variable, upward price pressure would transmit to the crypto market through inflation expectations and financing costs.
U.S. stocks close higher amid uncertainty, and here’s the internal logic behind the sharp rally in the storage sector
Despite elevated geopolitical risk, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55% and set a record closing high, the S&P 500 gained 0.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.09%.
Storage-related stocks became the strongest-performing sector of the day. Arm surged more than 16%, posting its biggest single-day gain since March; SanDisk rose more than 10%, Seagate Technology climbed nearly 8%, Western Digital rose more than 5%, and Micron Technology jumped more than 4%. Solar-related stocks also generally moved higher, with Enphase Energy up more than 17% and SolarEdge up more than 12%.
The breakout in the storage sector was not an isolated event. Since 2026, the acceleration of AI infrastructure development has directly boosted long-term demand for high-performance storage chips. Arm’s strong rally reflects the market’s continued bullish view on the underlying chips powering AI computing architectures. Meanwhile, the consecutive gains by storage giants such as Micron Technology overlap heavily with the data center construction cycle. This structurally driven rally led by industry trends demonstrates a logic independent of traditional macroeconomic-related assets.
Crypto market rebounds slightly, but the strength of support still needs to be validated
According to Gate market data, as of May 22, 2026, the overall crypto market showed a mild rebound. Bitcoin traded weakly in a $77,000 to $78,000 range and is in a “pressure overhead, support underneath” stage of bottoming. Ethereum is fluctuating around $2,140, with capital continuing to display a “de-risking” posture.
By total market capitalization, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is about $2.591 trillion, with Bitcoin holding a 60.01% share. This figure is basically in line with the $2.58 trillion total market cap level at the end of the previous quarter, suggesting that over the past month the crypto market has not seen a clear inflow of incremental capital, but rather remains in a range-bound standoff with existing positioning.
The rebound strength in the crypto market is notably weaker than that of the storage sector in U.S. equities, largely because capital preferences differ fundamentally. The AI narrative provides a clear industry-demand driver for storage chips, allowing institutional capital to capture upside growth exposure by selecting specific targets. In contrast, crypto assets such as Bitcoin rely more on macro liquidity and risk appetite. With interest-rate cut expectations effectively fading to zero—and concerns about a potential shift toward hikes rising—the short-term upward driving force is clearly constrained.
How geopolitical risk is changing the pricing framework for crypto assets
Research shows that Bitcoin’s performance in geopolitical shock events exhibits a distinct correlation pattern, flipping from positive to negative—highlighting its attribute as a risk asset rather than a safe haven. Crypto’s 24/7 continuous trading mechanism displays significant price-discovery functions during periods when traditional markets are closed, but this advantage can also amplify price volatility in an environment of uncertainty.
The current pricing logic for crypto assets is being jointly dominated by geopolitics and policy expectations. Crypto assets are increasingly taking on the characteristics of “macro-sensitive risk assets,” being pulled back and forth by interest rates, inflation expectations, U.S. dollar liquidity, regulatory frameworks, and geopolitics. Within this framework, the direction of the U.S.-Iran negotiations forms an important external variable:
Deal reached scenario: If the U.S. and Iran reach a final agreement, the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices lower, easing inflation expectations, and could give the U.S. Federal Reserve more flexibility in monetary policy—an intermediate-term positive for risk assets. However, in this scenario, some safe-haven capital that is not linked to the energy supply chain may exit the crypto market.
Negotiations fail scenario: If “Plan B” is activated, a restart of military conflict would sharply lift oil prices, pushing inflation expectations higher again and suppressing risk appetite. However, in this scenario, due to tighter restrictions on cross-border capital flows, the independent demand for crypto assets as a decentralized value storage tool may rise. The differentiation effects of the two paths mean the crypto market lacks a stable, one-way driving logic.
How structural divergence inside the crypto market affects the next phase
From 2025 to 2026, the crypto market has seen a significant structural divergence: Bitcoin has remained relatively strong under the push of institutional capital; the Ethereum ecosystem has continued to face pressure; stablecoin market capitalization has broken above $320 billion and accelerated into mainstream reach; and the Meme coin sector has been swinging violently between emotion-driven inflows and capital pullbacks. This “same direction, different timing” divergence has caused traditional synchronized bull-bear assessment frameworks to gradually lose effectiveness.
From capital flow patterns, spot ETFs are continuing to see net outflows, and institutions are displaying a clear “de-risking” posture. At the same time, within Bitcoin’s $76,000 to $78,000 range, support remains relatively strong. Large holdings disclosed by institutions such as SpaceX have reinforced the narrative that crypto assets function as corporate reserve assets. With macro liquidity not yet improving meaningfully, the extent of the crypto rebound is still constrained by two key factors: first, how the Fed’s policy expectations evolve in timing; second, whether institutional capital is willing to add back at current levels.
From price volatility to risk re-pricing—where is the market positioned?
The May 22 market picture shows a curious mismatch: U.S. equity storage stocks are surging strongly, reflecting structural opportunities brought by the AI industry cycle; oil prices are swinging violently on negotiation news, reflecting ongoing disruption to commodity pricing from geopolitics; and the crypto market sits in a gray area between these two macro narratives.
In terms of market structure, crypto assets neither have a clear industry-demand driver logic like the U.S. storage sector, nor do they directly depend on crude oil’s supply-and-demand fundamentals. Crypto assets are essentially going through a role transition from “speculative risk assets” to “macro-sensitive assets.” During this transition, price volatility is increasingly driven by external macro factors rather than by internal crypto technical cycles or narrative shifts.
The combined view that U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, Fed rate-cut expectations have cooled, and institutional capital continues to flow out indicates that the current crypto rebound is more a matter of sentiment repair and technical bounce rather than confirmation of a trend turning point. The key variables still sit at the macro level—how oil price moves transmit into inflation expectations, when the Fed releases signals of a policy pivot, and whether the Middle East situation evolves from “highly uncertain” into “meaningful relief”—will determine the directional choice of the crypto market over the coming weeks.
FAQ
Q1: What external factors are currently influencing the crypto market the most?
The crypto market is mainly influenced by three external variables: first, the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz toll system, which directly affect oil prices and inflation expectations; second, the Fed’s monetary policy expectations—rate-cut expectations are basically at zero in the current market, while concerns about rate hikes have risen; third, institutional capital flows—recent continuous net outflows from spot ETFs reflect institutions’ “de-risking” behavior.
Q2: How do changes in the U.S.-Iran situation affect Bitcoin’s price?
The U.S.-Iran situation affects Bitcoin through two pathways. First, the oil-price transmission pathway: geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices and inflation expectations, strengthen the Fed’s tightening bias, and suppress the valuation of risk assets. Second, the safe-haven demand pathway: during market closures in traditional finance, crypto assets’ 24/7 trading mechanism can provide an emergency safe-haven channel, and some cross-border capital may flow into crypto due to heightened geopolitical tensions. Because the two pathways point in opposite directions, Bitcoin’s price shows a complex pattern during periods of conflict news.
Q3: What is the connection between a surge in the storage sector and the crypto market?
The storage sector’s rally has limited direct connection to the crypto market. Demand expansion for storage chips is mainly driven by AI infrastructure buildout, which is an industry-trend-led rally. The crypto market currently depends more on the macro liquidity environment and institutional capital allocation willingness. Together, they represent two different types of capital preference—growth-driven and liquidity-driven—and there is capital diversion between them in the current macro environment.
Q4: What are the key observation checkpoints for the crypto market’s next outlook?
Key observation checkpoints include three items: first, whether the U.S.-Iran negotiations reach a final agreement soon, and whether the Strait of Hormuz toll system is formally implemented; second, the June Fed meeting’s clear statements on the path of interest rates; third, whether spot ETF capital flows shift from outflows to inflows. If the above checkpoints produce clear directional signals, the crypto market may break out of its current range-bound consolidation pattern.
Q5: Where is the crypto market positioned in its current cycle?
Based on macro and institutional behavior indicators, the crypto market is in a “bottoming” phase. Persistent short-term capital outflows, sentiment indicators in the fear range, and the fading of rate-cut expectations suggest the market has not entered a trend-based upward cycle. But major assets such as Bitcoin have stabilized above key support levels, and institutional holdings remain elevated, indicating the market is not in a deep bear phase either. The current stage is closer to the latter half of a prolonged consolidation period, and the direction choice will require clear external catalysts.
