Fed Rate Hikes Favored Over Cuts Through Year-End 2026; May CPI Report Shifts Market Expectations

According to BlockBeats citing CME FedWatch data, the May CPI report released today has shifted expectations toward potential Fed rate hikes through year-end 2026. Market pricing now shows a 42.9% probability of cumulative rate increases of 25 basis points, a 20.9% probability of 50 basis points in hikes, a 4.1% probability of 75 basis points, and a 0.3% probability of 100 basis points. The odds of maintaining rates unchanged through year-end stand at 30.6%, while the probability of cumulative cuts of 25 basis points is just 1.2%. For the Fed's June meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 3.8%.
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