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Federal Reserve to Hold Rates on July 29; Market Prices 77% Odds of September Hike

2026-07-28 14:22:25

CME2.11%

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, with markets pricing an 68.5% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool as of July 28. However, the real focus is September: FedWatch shows a 77.4% chance that rates will be higher by the September 16 meeting, composed of a 56.3% probability of one quarter-point hike and a 21.1% chance of two increases. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has removed forward guidance from recent statements, leaving the September direction uncertain.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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In-Depth Analysis

Fed July Rate Hold Hits 71% on Polymarket Amid Inflation Stabilization Bets

Ethan Brooks10h ago

Fed July Rate Decision Set for July 29th: Markets Price 66.3% Unchanged

Lucas Bennett21h ago

Will the Fed raise rates or cut rates in July? In the prediction market, 79% of funds are betting that rates will stay the same.

Gate Instant Trends07-27 13:28

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