Fuel Oil Futures Fall 8.13% to 3,604 Yuan/Ton on July 27 as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Cuts Geopolitical Premium

According to Huawen Futures, fuel oil futures fell 8.13% to 3,604 yuan/ton on July 27 after the U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire, triggering a sharp pullback in geopolitical risk premium. International crude oil prices declined significantly on the news, reducing cost-side risks and dragging fuel oil lower with a maximum intraday decline exceeding 8%.

However, despite the military de-escalation, supply-chain pressures remain. Tanker tracking data shows the Strait of Hormuz daily traffic remains in single digits, while Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers have sharply reduced Strait of Mandeb flows. The underlying tight fuel oil supply-demand balance remains unchanged, with cost-side uncertainty persisting.