Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to Goldman Sachs, Persian Gulf crude output in June remained about 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. The bank warned that further disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could slow the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supply, despite producers beginning to

According to Yonhapinfomax, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf warned overnight that the Strait of Hormuz would only open through negotiations with Iran, not by U.S. pressure. "If attacked, there will certainly be retaliation," Ghalibaf posted on X, stating that "threats and broken p

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3%, down from 3.1% projected in April. The downgrade, disclosed in a report on local time 8th, reflects energy shocks stemming from the Iran war. Last year's global growth stood at 3.5%. The IMF attributed the revision t

According to its July 8 report, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3%, down from its April estimate of 3.1% and 2025's 3.5% growth rate. The downgrade reflects energy shocks from ongoing geopolitical tensions, with international oil prices rising

On July 9 at market close, energy and chemical futures led gains, with low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising over 6%, while SC crude and fuel oil climbed over 5%. Conversely, shipping, precious metals, and soft commodities entered correction mode, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)

According to Xinhua, Russia announced on July 8 a ban on oil companies' diesel exports, with the restriction in effect until July 31. The decision followed a meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to address fuel

According to Yahoo Finance on July 9, UBS expects U.S. Treasury yields to decline as secondary inflation effects remain limited. The bank noted that while persistent inflation concerns are currently driving up global bond yields, rates should fall over time as central banks gain confidence that infl

According to Guru Club, on July 9, heating oil futures surged 6% intraday, trading at 3,214 yuan per ton.

According to Goldman Sachs, Persian Gulf crude supply is expected to recover by late July if negotiations continue for 60 days and Iran's oil exemption is restored. The recovery would require crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz to increase by 6.6 million barrels per day.

According to Guru Club, lithium carbonate futures main contract fell 5% during intraday trading on July 9.

According to Shanghai Steel United, battery-grade lithium carbonate (MMLC) spot prices fell to 158,200 yuan/ton today (July 9), declining 4,100 yuan/ton from the previous day's close.

Japanese stocks rose on the 9th, with the Nikkei 225 index climbing 1,144.04 points (1.71%) to 67,963.09 as of 9:17 AM, driven by overnight buying in US technology stocks. The rally followed US President Donald Trump's decision to soften his rhetoric on Iran after initially

According to Yonhap Infomax, South Korea's government bond futures fell sharply on July 9 amid renewed concerns over U.S.-Iran conflict escalation. The 3-year bond futures dropped 11 ticks to 103.01, while 10-year futures fell 32 ticks to 105.59. The 10-year benchmark yield surged to 4.292%,

According to Yonhapinfomax, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1,144.04 points (1.71%) to 67,963.09 on July 9, recovering above the 67,000 level on the opening bell. The gains were driven by overnight strength in U.S. technology stocks, as Donald Trump signaled a de-escalation in tensions with Iran. The

Samsung Electronics reported Q2 operating profit of 89.4 trillion won as Meritz Securities analyst Kim Seon-woo stated the semiconductor cycle structure has fundamentally shifted from B2C to B2B demand, with the supercycle potentially lasting 2-3 more years until big tech companies voluntarily

Over the past 24 hours, amid escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, no U.S. military escort operations were conducted. In the past two days, arrivals of non-Iran-related ultra-large crude tankers have dropped to zero, reflecting continued disruptions to maritime traffic

According to Guru Club, the Container Shipping Index (Europe line) main contract fell 8% intraday on July 9, now trading at 2,342.0 points.

US stock futures climbed in the overnight session late Wednesday, reversing a sell-off triggered by escalating tensions between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump indicated the interim deal to end the conflict may be 'over.' Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.19%, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.08%, and