Gate Daily Report (April 29): Prediction market ETF is expected to launch next week; Trading Protocol treasury was attacked

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show a weak posture, and as of April 29 it is temporarily trading around $76,250. A Bloomberg ETF analyst wrote that the market’s ETF is expected to be launched next week. According to PeShield monitoring, a vault for the suspected Trading Protocol YieldCore-3rd-deal was attacked, with losses of about $398k.

Macro Events & Crypto Hot Topics

1、Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on X that the market’s ETF is expected to be launched next week. Filings submitted by Roundhill show the effective date as May 5. The first prediction market ETFs will place bets around which party—the Democrats or the Republicans—will win control of the House of Representatives or the Senate. Seyffart expects other issuers such as Bitwise and GraniteShares to also submit similar filings in the coming days, and they may launch on the same day or around the same date.

2、According to PeShield monitoring, a vault for the suspected Trading Protocol YieldCore-3rd-deal was attacked, with losses of about $398k. The vulnerability stems from a missing caller authorization check; the attacker exploited this vulnerability to transfer all funds out of the vault.

News Snapshot

1、U.S. Department of Justice: A French citizen was sentenced to eight years in prison for laundering more than $470 million through shell companies and crypto accounts

2、Former PayPal CEO launches a new Bitcoin wallet supporting AI agent trading

3、Bloomberg analyst: Prediction market ETF expected to launch next week

4、Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones: Bitcoin is the “best inflation-hedging tool,” and U.S. stock market valuations are too high

5、Senator Lummis: Refining developer-protection provisions to ensure the safety of developers who do not transmit capital

6、Bitwise CIO: The strategy-driven Bitcoin rally may “last for a while”

7、Robinhood Q1 crypto income and trading volume both drop by nearly 50%

8、U.S. CFTC sues Wisconsin, escalating conflicts between federal and state prediction market regulation

9、Bitmine stakes an additional ~108k ETH again; total staked value rises to $8.98 billion

Market Trend

1、Latest Bitcoin update: $BTC continues its weak posture, temporarily trading around $76,250. Over the past 24 hours, $47.54 million was liquidated, with long positions leading the liquidation;

2、U.S. stocks fell across the board on April 28, as anxiety over artificial intelligence (AI) once again swept Wall Street. Influenced by a report from The Wall Street Journal that OpenAI, an AI-indicator company, failed to meet revenue and user growth targets, investors grew highly skeptical that technology giants investing hundreds of billions of dollars could deliver comparable returns, causing Oracle, SoftBank, and chip stocks to fall on the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25.86 points, down 0.05%, closing at 49,141.93. The S&P 500 fell 35.11 points from its record high, down 0.5%, closing at 7,138.80. The Nasdaq Composite fell 223.30 points, down 0.9%, closing at 24,663.80.

（Source: Gate）

3、In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, using the current 76,505.40 USDT as the reference: if it falls to around $75,281, the total amount liquidated for long positions will exceed $190 million; if it rises to around $78,425, the total amount liquidated for short positions will exceed $866 million. The liquidation amount for short positions is significantly higher than for long positions. It is recommended to manage leverage levels reasonably and avoid triggering large-scale liquidations when market conditions change.

（Source: Coinglass）

4、Over the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows were $1.73 billion, outflows were $1.79 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $60 million.

（Source: Coinglass）

5、Over the past 24 hours, $ETH, $ZKJ, $CL, $TAO, $BSB and other contract trades led net outflows, indicating potential trading opportunities.

Selected Views from X KOLs

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “WTI’s oil price has topped $100 today. It’s not far from my third time adding to the position at $103. I don’t know if I can do it—going short WTI on strength is my main current idea. Basically, I believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not last long. The延期 of ceasefires between the U.S. and Iran shows both sides don’t want to keep fighting. Shouldn’t the oil price rise never exceed the duration of the wartime blockade?”

“Also, today there was information that the UAE exited OPEC+, which has shaken the market a bit as well. But in the long run, the UAE’s exit is to increase production, which is beneficial for lowering oil prices. Currently, the main driver for WTI’s rise should still be the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Also, although the U.S. and Iran still have not reached a reconciliation, after the U.S. rejected it, Iran revised its peace proposal again. It should be announced in the next few days. This is good news for comprehensive peace between the U.S. and Iran and for keeping the Strait of Hormuz clear. As long as things are still moving forward, there is a possibility of success.”

“Early Thursday morning will be the latest FOMC meeting. There will be no interest-rate adjustments—this is the market consensus. Compared with April versus March, there shouldn’t be too much change. We’ll continue under Powell’s leadership. More likely, they will ask whether they will raise rates due to the rise in oil prices. From now, it seems the Fed is unlikely to use the option of rate hikes.”

“Turning back to the Bitcoin data, the turnover rate has strengthened a bit, but trading volume isn’t very large. It should be that some investors who were buying the dip recently because of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have started to exit. And with no updated positive catalysts, both U.S. stocks and crypto have pulled back—this is about as normal as it gets. The current $BTC will still be influenced by U.S. macro and economic factors.”

Outlook for Today

1、U.S. March Durable Goods Orders (month-over-month), prior value was -1.4%

2、Canada overnight target rate, prior value was 2.25%

3、U.S. last week EIA crude oil inventory change (10,000 barrels) (to 0424), prior value was 192.5

4、Bank of Canada releases interest-rate decision and monetary policy report

5、Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers hold a monetary policy news briefing

6、Japan Showa Day holiday market closed