George Santos, the former congressman released from federal prison four months earlier on a sentence commuted by Trump, allegedly bet against his own attendance at the State of the Union and profited in the tens of thousands of dollars, according to NPR reporting. Santos posted a video to X the day before the speech telling followers he would watch from the gallery, driving Kalshi prediction market odds toward 75 percent, then failed to appear and posted from an airport as Trump spoke. Kalshi detected the activity, froze the account, and referred the case to the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, two people familiar with the matter said. The case adds Santos to a growing list of traders accused of converting private information into prediction-market profit, following recent charges against a Google engineer who made more than $1.2 million on Polymarket and a U.S. soldier who made more than $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Santos Bet Against Own State of the Union Attendance
The episode began four months after Santos walked out of federal prison on a sentence commuted by Trump, cutting short an 87-month term for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft tied to his 2022 campaign. In a video posted to X the day before the speech, he told followers he would be watching from the gallery, NPR reported. On Kalshi, where traders had staked millions on who would attend, his confirmation pushed the odds of his appearance toward 75 percent.
He never showed. "Watching SOTU from an airport TV was not part of the plan," Santos posted as Trump spoke, and the market cratered. What he omitted, per NPR, was that he had already bet against his own attendance, pocketing a profit in the tens of thousands at the expense of the bettors on the other side.
Kalshi Refers Case to Federal Investigators
Kalshi detected the activity, froze the account, and referred it to the CFTC and the Justice Department, two people familiar with the matter said. Neither agency responded to requests for comment, and the prediction market also declined to discuss the case. Reached by reporters, Santos called the probe "news to me" and would not confirm an account: "I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no."
Kalshi disclosed in February that it had opened more than 200 insider-trading investigations over the prior year, a dozen of which became active cases. The former congressman remains a fixture of the market he is accused of gaming; last month, traders wagered nearly $90,000 on which words he would utter in a single Newsmax interview.
Prediction Markets Face Growing Insider Trading Scrutiny
Santos joins a widening roster of traders accused of converting private knowledge into prediction-market profit. Last week, prosecutors charged a Google engineer who made more than $1.2 million on Polymarket trades tied to confidential search data. In April, a U.S. soldier was charged with making more than $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Lawmakers and the CFTC have repeatedly warned that the markets' breakneck growth has outrun their safeguards.
What sets the Santos case apart is the source of the edge: the bettor himself.
FAQ
What did George Santos allegedly do on Kalshi before the State of the Union?
George Santos allegedly bet against his own attendance at the State of the Union after posting a video the day before the speech telling followers he would attend from the gallery, according to NPR reporting. He did not show up and profited in the tens of thousands of dollars as the market odds collapsed.
Why did Kalshi refer the Santos case to federal investigators?
Kalshi detected the trading activity, froze the account, and referred the case to the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after determining Santos had allegedly bet against his own attendance, two people familiar with the matter said. Neither agency has commented on the probe.
How does the Santos case compare to other prediction market insider trading charges?
Santos joins recent cases including a Google engineer charged last week for making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket using confidential search data and a U.S. soldier charged in April for making more than $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Kalshi disclosed it opened more than 200 insider-trading investigations over the prior year.
