Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone predicts gold could reach a sustainable peak in 2026 and face a reversal during the second half of the year. The forecast follows gold's record high near $5,500 per ounce in the first quarter, after which a large red annual candlestick began forming — a technical signal McGlone interprets as weakening momentum. McGlone bases his outlook on gold's current premium to the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index, which last reached similar levels in 1980 before the metal entered a prolonged decline. Precious metals remain the only major commodity sector to rise and hold gains, while other segments have failed to generate lasting momentum.
McGlone Cites 1980 Precedent and Technical Signals for Gold Reversal Risk
McGlone described gold as the "beta" of the metals market and the leading force within the broader commodity sector. He pointed to a large red annual candlestick forming after gold reached a record high near $5,500 per ounce in the first quarter. In technical analysis, such a candle can signal weakening momentum and a possible reversal after a powerful advance.
McGlone highlighted a historical comparison: the last time gold traded at a similar premium to the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index was in 1980, after which the metal entered a prolonged decline. He noted that inflation is an important difference between the current environment and 1980, but believes today's conditions increase the risk that gold prices eventually normalize relative to the rest of the commodity market.
According to McGlone, the commodity market can be summarized in one chart: precious metals are the only sector that moved higher and remained elevated. He described the other commodity segments as "dummy stocks," suggesting they have failed to generate lasting momentum.
![Commodity sector performance since 1991]()
![Annual gold candles since 1975]()
Bloomberg Commodity Index Faces Dual Pressure from Stock Market Performance
McGlone examined the relationship between commodities and the stock market. He warned that the Bloomberg Commodity Index's rise to a new high in the first half of the year may prove temporary. At the same time, the index remains close to a record low relative to the total return of the S&P 500.
According to McGlone, this leaves commodities with only one clear path to outperformance: a major decline in the stock market. He described the setup as a "lose-lose" situation for commodities. If equities continue rising, commodities may keep underperforming. If stocks fall, broader risk-off pressure could also drag commodity prices lower.
The key difference from the commodity market bottom relative to stocks in 2000 is gold's exceptional performance. McGlone said the precious metal has already outpaced the rest of the sector by a wide margin, and the coming months will show whether that gap is sustainable.
FAQ
What price level did gold reach in the first quarter according to Bloomberg Intelligence?
Gold reached a record high near $5,500 per ounce in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone.
Why does McGlone compare current gold prices to 1980?
McGlone noted that the last time gold traded at a similar premium to the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index was in 1980, after which the metal entered a prolonged decline. He believes today's conditions increase the risk that gold prices eventually normalize relative to the rest of the commodity market.
How does McGlone describe the outlook for commodities relative to stocks?
McGlone described the setup as a "lose-lose" situation for commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index remains close to a record low relative to the S&P 500 total return, leaving commodities with only one clear path to outperformance: a major decline in the stock market.
