Spot gold and silver prices rose in late-afternoon U.S. trading Monday, with gold near $4,075.60 an ounce (up 0.59%) and silver at $58.290 (up 0.45%). Lower oil prices eased the inflation impulse from the U.S.-Iran conflict. Positioning remained cautious ahead of this week's Federal Reserve decision, with markets pricing a meaningful probability of a 25-basis-point hike.
FOMC Decision Caps Gold Bid with Rate Hike Risk
U.S. interest rates remain the main macro risk for gold, with the FOMC decision due Wednesday. Markets are pricing a meaningful, but not dominant, probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Gold's bid is being capped by the risk that the Fed keeps policy restrictive and pushes back against any easing expectations. With no clear path on monetary policy, the metal is caught between energy-led inflation risk and event-risk uncertainty.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Drive Oil Price Decline
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central macro risk premium for energy and, by extension, gold. The waterway carried roughly 15 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil before the Iran war. Recent traffic disruptions have forced Gulf producers to lean harder on pipeline alternatives that were not built to fully replace Hormuz. Monday's pause in U.S. and Iranian attacks took immediate pressure out of crude, with Brent settling at $85.87 a barrel (down 6.3%) and U.S. crude settling at $82.61 a barrel (down 7.5%). That relieved some oil-led inflation pressure and helped Treasury yields ease, but the shipping channel is not normalized, leaving gold supported by headline risk while higher real-rate risk limits follow-through buying.
U.S. Equities and Treasuries React to De-Escalation Trade
U.S. equities finished mixed as the de-escalation trade favored fuel-sensitive sectors and pressured parts of technology. The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.2%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note traded near the 4.6% area, down from late Friday. The U.S. dollar index was softer to little changed across Monday's session.
Technical Outlook: Gold Resistance at $4,162–$4,214 Zone
Spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,221.46 and then $4,382.62. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.80, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,166.13 and then at $4,202.71. First support is seen at $4,072.40 and then at $4,041.65.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the $70.65 to $72.08 resistance zone. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break back below the 20-day moving average near $58.82, with deeper downside targets at $54.78 and then $45.00. First resistance is seen at $60.10 and then at $60.94. Next support is seen at $58.82 and then at $54.78.
FAQ
What did spot gold and silver prices do in late-afternoon U.S. trading Monday?
Spot gold traded near $4,075.60 an ounce, up 0.59%, while spot silver traded at $58.290, up 0.45% on the session.
Why did crude oil prices decline Monday?
Monday's pause in U.S. and Iranian attacks took immediate pressure out of crude, with Brent settling at $85.87 a barrel (down 6.3%) and U.S. crude settling at $82.61 a barrel (down 7.5%).
When is the FOMC decision due?
The FOMC decision is due Wednesday, with markets pricing a meaningful probability of a 25-basis-point hike.
