Goldman Sachs: Gulf Oil Production Down 14.5M Barrels Daily in April, Recovery Could Take Months

According to Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil production declined by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day in April due to Iran-related conflict, representing about 57% of pre-conflict supply levels. The decline was primarily driven by precautionary shutdowns and inventory management rather than physical damage to oil fields. Goldman Sachs estimates that external institutions’ average forecast suggests Gulf producers could recover roughly 70% of lost production within three months and approximately 88% within six months following a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though recovery timelines vary by country due to differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure challenges, and sanctions exposure.