Grayscale Research Head: Bitcoin Rally Above $76K Could Signal Start of Bull Market Phase One

Gate News message, April 21 — According to Grayscale research head Zach Pandl, Bitcoin touched a low of approximately $63,000 on February 5 and has since rebounded over 20% to around $76,000, slightly above the average cost basis of recent buyers.

Using on-chain analysis, Pandl highlighted the "realized price" metric, which tracks the weighted average price of all circulating Bitcoin at the time of their last on-chain transfer. Bitcoin traded in the past 1-3 months has a realized price of approximately $74,000, meaning recent buyers have returned to breakeven. If Bitcoin continues to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will turn profitable (positive PnL), which could signal the beginning of the first phase of a bull market.

Pandl concluded that although Bitcoin remains significantly below its October 2025 peak, many recent buyers have reached breakeven status, suggesting the cryptocurrency has formed a relatively solid market bottom in the $65,000-$70,000 range.