Hong Kong Faces Record USD 274B Stock Unlocking Wave in July-September

According to Goldman Sachs, Hong Kong is set to experience an unprecedented restricted stock unlocking wave this month and beyond, with USD 274 billion (approximately HKD 2.14 trillion) in locked-up shares expected to be freed over the next 12 months—a record high. Morgan Stanley warned that selling pressure will concentrate in July and September, potentially straining market liquidity even as company fundamentals remain solid.

Historically, stocks typically decline 4 to 7 percent within three to six months following such unlocking events. Notable cases this week include AI developer Zhipu (02513) with 25.6 million shares ending a six-month lockup period—approximately 6 percent of issued shares—and MiniMax (00100) and Shanghai Tiananshu (09903) also facing substantial unlocks representing 45 percent and 4.3 percent of their issued shares respectively.