IEA Chief Predicts Two-Year Recovery for Middle East Energy Production; Global Oil Demand to Fall for First Time Since Covid

Gate News message, April 17 — Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned that oil and gas production in the Middle East will take approximately two years to recover to pre-Iran war levels. More than 80 energy facilities in the Gulf sustained damage during the conflict, with over one-third severely or very severely damaged, according to IEA research.

Recovery timelines will vary by country, with Iraq requiring significantly longer than Saudi Arabia. Birol also warned that the world should prepare for significantly higher energy prices if the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil typically passes, does not reopen soon. The waterway has been near standstill for weeks, with a U.S. blockade targeting vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports beginning on Monday.

The IEA released a report this week projecting global oil demand will fall by 80,000 barrels per day on average in 2026, marking the first decline since the Covid pandemic and reversing its prior forecast of 830,000 bpd growth. No new tankers were loaded in March, resulting in zero new oil, gas, or fuel deliveries to Asian markets, Birol noted. IEA member nations released 400 million barrels of oil last month to stabilize markets, with Birol indicating additional stockpile releases may occur if needed.

In a separate interview, Birol stated that ultimately "no country" would be immune to the energy market crisis. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that a deal to end the war is "very close," with peace talks potentially resuming in Pakistan as early as this weekend.