Japanese semiconductor company Kioxia saw its stock price close at 52,110 yen on May 17, falling to half the all-time high reached one month prior, according to Bloomberg. Trading resumed at the 56,000-57,000 yen range after the May 20 public holiday. The decline stemmed from concerns over AI investment sustainability, memory price weakness due to competitor capacity expansion, and technical selling from Korean leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite the drop, local analysts maintain an average target price of 121,959 yen—approximately 130% above the May 17 close—citing expectations for AI demand and NAND flash supply tightness. This represents the largest gap between target price and actual price among Japan's TOPIX 100 companies by market capitalization.
Analysts Maintain 121,959 Yen Average Target Price
Bloomberg reported that Japanese analysts maintain optimistic projections for Kioxia based on AI demand and NAND flash market improvement expectations. The average target price of 121,959 yen stands approximately 130% higher than the May 17 closing price of 52,110 yen. This gap is the widest among TOPIX 100 constituents when comparing target prices to actual trading levels.
Nomura and China Renaissance Raise Kioxia Price Targets
Nomura Securities raised Kioxia's target price to 126,000 yen from 115,000 yen on May 16. Nomura analyst Virginia Wang projected continued NAND flash price increases due to persistent supply shortages. China Renaissance Research also raised its target price above 100,000 yen on May 21.
AI Investment Concerns and Korean ETF Selling Drive Decline
The stock's one-month decline was attributed to overlapping factors: concerns about the sustainability of AI investment expansion, memory price weakness forecasts following competitor capacity additions, and technical selling pressure originating from Korean leveraged ETFs. Bloomberg noted that these supply-demand factors amplified the decline.
Analysts Cite Unchanged Fundamentals and AI Demand
Iwai Cosmo Securities chief analyst Kazuyoshi Saito set a target price of 132,000 yen, stating that "the company's fundamentals have not changed at all, and the earnings and growth story based on solid AI demand remain valid." Saito added that once supply-demand distortions from Korean leveraged ETFs ease, positive factors such as solid earnings will drive stock price recovery.
Philip Securities Japan chief analyst Yoshiharu Izumi maintained a target price of 143,000 yen, diagnosing that "recent stock weakness was mostly due to technical factors such as overseas ETF selling and liquidation of margin trading by Japanese retail investors," with no change in fundamentals.
FAQ
What price did Kioxia stock close at on May 17?
Kioxia closed at 52,110 yen on May 17, falling to half the all-time high reached one month prior.
What is the average analyst target price for Kioxia?
The average target price is 121,959 yen, approximately 130% above the May 17 closing price, according to Bloomberg.
Why did Kioxia's stock price decline in one month?
The decline was attributed to concerns over AI investment sustainability, memory price weakness from competitor capacity expansion, and technical selling from Korean leveraged ETFs.
