Prediction market traders estimate a 77-78% probability that OpenAI will publicly release GPT-6 by September 30, with odds rising across platforms in the last 24 hours. The increased likelihood reflects heightened trading activity on Polymarket and Myriad, where contracts for the September deadline have climbed from mid-single digits earlier this month. OpenAI has not announced GPT-6 or disclosed a release timeline, with its current flagship model GPT-5.6 Sol having launched publicly on July 9.
Polymarket Trading Volume Reaches $731,000 for GPT-6 Contracts
Polymarket's GPT-6 market has generated approximately $731,000 in trading volume, representing the total value of contracts bought and sold. This figure is up about $32,000 from the previous indexed snapshot. The contract for a public release by September 30 climbed to 77%, while the August 31 deadline moved into the mid-30s and August 21 slipped to 15%. September odds have increased from 14% at the start of the month.
Because these are cumulative "released by" dates, each deadline includes every earlier day. The gap between August and September probabilities indicates traders view September as significantly more plausible than the next few weeks.
Myriad Shows 77% Odds for September Release
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the odds of a September release stand at 77%, climbing from 64% last week. Prediction markets allow participants to buy contracts that pay $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it does not, with the price commonly interpreted as the crowd's implied probability.
OpenAI Has Not Announced GPT-6 Design or Launch Date
As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a launch date. The company's current flagship model is GPT-5.6 Sol, released July 9. OpenAI has disclosed no design specifications, model size, pricing structure, or feature list for GPT-6.
OpenAI Confirms Security Breach and Announces Dublin Expansion
OpenAI confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced 250 new jobs in Dublin. SoftBank is financing its OpenAI push through a $40 billion bridge facility, a short-term loan used until longer-term financing is arranged.
FAQ
What are the current prediction market odds for GPT-6 release by September 30?
Polymarket shows 77% probability and Myriad shows 77% probability for a public GPT-6 release by September 30, with both platforms recording increased odds in the last 24 hours.
Has OpenAI announced a release date for GPT-6?
No. As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical specifications, or a launch timeline. The company's current flagship model is GPT-5.6 Sol, which launched on July 9.
What recent developments has OpenAI confirmed?
OpenAI confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation, announced 250 new Dublin jobs, and disclosed that SoftBank is providing a $40 billion bridge facility to finance its operations.
