Polymarket, Kalshi Hit $150B Combined Lifetime Volume in April

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined monthly trading volume declined in April, ending a seven-month streak of record highs, according to The Block’s data. The platforms’ combined lifetime volumes crossed $150 billion in April, though month-over-month activity fell for the first time since September growth began accelerating.

Monthly Volume Decline Driven by Polymarket Global Slowdown

The April decline was primarily driven by lower activity on Polymarket’s global platform, while Polymarket’s U.S. subsidiary, still being rolled out, and Kalshi both experienced growth, according to The Block. The data shows that U.S. dollar volumes on Polymarket declined alongside a plunge in notional volume on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Active Traders Drop on Polymarket

Polymarket’s active trader count dropped to approximately 643,000 in April, down from over 733,000 in March, breaking another seven-month growth streak, per The Block’s data. This decline in active traders coincided with the overall volume reduction across the platform.

Regulatory Landscape and Market Position

Polymarket and Kalshi remain the leading prediction markets in a sector gaining widespread attention and regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi is rapidly expanding in sports betting, drawing concerns from state-level regulators and gaming authorities.

Kalshi won a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2024 to offer election-related contracts, establishing a U.S. foothold. That lawsuit also enabled Polymarket to re-enter the U.S. market by acquiring a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, after the platform was previously banned for offering unregistered event contracts. Polymarket is reportedly seeking to onboard its entire global marketplace into the U.S.

Under the current administration, the CFTC has shifted to embracing prediction market experimentation, issuing guidance to foster innovation and withdrawing prior stricter gaming contract guidelines. The CFTC has also filed lawsuits against several states attempting to ban prediction markets based on the legal theory that event contracts are binary derivatives under federal jurisdiction.

Funding and Insider Trading Prevention

In March, Kalshi raised capital at a $22 billion valuation. Polymarket, previously backed by NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, is reportedly seeking to raise at a $15 billion valuation. Both firms are actively implementing measures to bar insider trading on their platforms, including Polymarket’s engagement of Chainalysis for monitoring and compliance efforts.