Polymarket Faces Insider Trading Scrutiny as Trump-Related Prediction Trading Surges

Gate News message, April 23 — Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has drawn insider trading allegations following a surge in trading volume around predictions related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and statements. Between April 5 and 8, markets predicting outcomes related to Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions involving over $100 million in funds.

Analysts attribute the heightened market activity to Trump’s highly unpredictable decision-making style, with key trading subjects including whether the U.S. will take military action against Iran and whether ceasefire negotiations will proceed. Trading volumes spiked notably following Trump’s social media posts on these topics.

A point of concern is that Donald Trump Jr. holds shares in Polymarket while simultaneously serving as an advisor to Kalshi, another prediction platform, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data shows political prediction markets have become the second-largest category after sports. Despite growing controversy, U.S. regulators have maintained a relatively permissive stance, supporting continued expansion in the sector.