Polymarket Lists U.S.-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Market on July 16 with 54% August 31 Odds

According to PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket listed a new prediction market on July 16 for when the U.S. and Iran will achieve a two-week ceasefire. The market tracks odds for multiple settlement dates based on whether the U.S. refrains from military action against Iran during specified 14-day periods.

Current market odds show 5% probability for July 18, 15% for July 24, 23% for July 31, 43% for August 14, and 54% for August 31. Resolution hinges on whether the U.S. initiates air strikes or direct missile attacks on Iran within each two-week window; if no qualifying military action occurs, the market resolves "yes."