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Polymarket Odds of Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure Surge to 26% Amid Houthis Blockade

GateNews
Prediction Market
According to Polymarket, traders have elevated the odds of a Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure by September 30 to 26%, up from 11% on Monday morning, following the Yemeni Houthis' declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The group declared the blockade based on an "eye for an eye" principle in response to recent regional tensions. The strait is a critical chokepoint for Saudi oil exports, with approximately 4.5 million barrels transiting daily. Polymarket's contract resolves using IMF PortWatch data—measuring 7-day average transit arrivals—rather than news reports, ensuring objective market outcomes.
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